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Current Affairs May 15th at 2pm Ed Barksdale: The Rise and Fall of Nations – Where is America Now?

The background material, provided in advance, focuses on “the science of history,” relying on the work of the mathematical historian Peter Turchin.

Throughout recorded history, great nations have experienced repeated cycles of harmony, which coincided with a rise to greatness, and disharmony, which coincided with decline—and ultimately their demise.

Turchin’s thesis is that two primary factors drive these cycles:

1. the degree of income disparity between the upper and lower classes of each society and

2. the production—or overproduction—of “elites,” i.e., those seeking wealth and social power.

The United States is in its third period of extreme disharmony—the first was the decade before the Civil War, the second was in 1920, and the third is today.

The discussion will attempt to avoid a political debate and instead focus on the underlying factors behind our nation’s contentious and divided state.

The 1850s preceded the Civil War, and the 1920s preceded the Great Depression, so what is next for America?

Articles of interest:

Darien Discussion Group Letter

The deep historical forces that explain Trump’s win

PeterTurchin–Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/30/the-deep-historical-forces-that-explain-trumps-win

History as Science-Why do we need mathematical history? 

Book Club: Unfinished Love Story, Doris Kearns Goodwin, May 14, 2025

“Dick and Doris Goodwin were married for forty-two years and married to American history even longer. Dick was one of the young men of John F. Kennedy’s New Frontier, and he both named and helped design Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society. Doris was a White House Fellow and worked directly for Lyndon Johnson, later assisting on his memoir. The Goodwins’ last great adventure involved opening the more than three hundred boxes of letters, diaries, documents and memorabilia Dick had saved for more than fifty years. The voyage of remembrance revived the hope that the youth of today will carry forward this love story with America”–

Erin Noonan, “DCA, planning for a vital future,” June 4, 2025

Darien Community Association
Located on nearly eight acres in the heart of town, the Darien Community Association is a privately-funded nonprofit organization. Since its founding in 1923, the association has made a positive impact on our community through offering educational and cultural opportunities, connection, sustainability and public green spaces. The DCA is an award-winning event venue for corporate events and weddings. Its members, partners, neighbors and over 100 volunteers give back to our community, participate in special programs and make a lasting impact through volunteer opportunities and scholarships to Darien High School students.
Erin Noonan
In announcing Erin’s appointment last August as executive director of the DCA, the board described Erin as a seasoned executive with over 25 years of experience in the development of business and brand strategies, digital and communication plans, and integrated campaigns for some of the world’s most recognized and most well-loved brands. Those brands included Nike, ESPN, American Express and Pepsi. She has brought her vision and experience to bear on revitalizing the DCA for a new era.
A long-time resident of Darien, Erin has been a tireless community volunteer, serving with local organizations including k Person to Person, OPUS, the Ox Ridge PTO, the RTM, and her local church preschool.

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