Dr. Frank Nothaft is chief economist for CoreLogic, America’s largest provider of advanced property and ownership information, analytics and data-enabled services. He leads the economics team responsible for analysis, commentary and forecasting in global real estate, insurance and mortgage markets. Before joining CoreLogic Frank served in a variety of leadership positions at Freddie Mac. Prior to Freddie Mac, Frank was an economist with the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in the mortgage and consumer finance section and served as assistant to Governor Henry C. Wallich.
Frank has served as president of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, Board member of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) and the Financial Management Association, Advisory Board member of the Real Estate Research Institute, Editorial Board member of the Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, and is a Weimer School Fellow of the Homer Hoyt Institute. He received the NABE Outlook Award for having the most accurate macroeconomic forecast for 2018.
Frank graduated from New York University with a B.A. in mathematics and computer science, and holds a Ph.D. in economics from Columbia University.
Arranged by Geoff Rezek
Bryan Hooper’s notes on the talk:
Dr. Frank Nothaft, the chief economist at CoreLogic, a business-to-business firm specializing in providing analysis and solutions for the property market, reviewed the events of the past pandemic year and forecast the upcoming economic outlook for the country.
He noted that 2020 at a negative 3.5% saw the largest drop in GDP since 1946, a time when the country was adjusting from a wartime economic standing back toward peacetime operations. The current $1.9 trillion recovery bill should help boost growth in 2021 to around 4.8%, the biggest gain since 1984. Along with this growth should come a recovery from unemployment, which stood at 6.2% in February. The Federal Reserve is mandated by Congress to maximize employment and maintain price stability, and a return to a “full employment” level of 4.0 to 4.5% unemployment is considered feasible by the fourth quarter of 2022. While the stimulus package is also provoking concerns about inflation, Dr. Nothaft stressed that the central bank is looking at an inflation rate that has averaged only 1.8% since 2000, and the current target of 2% is achievable by fourth quarter 2022 given the intention to maintain the federal funds rate between zero and 0.25%.
Mortgage rates averaged 4.1% from 2010 through 2019, and currently stand at 3.0%, with growth to 3.5% predicted for 2022. Dr. Nothaft suggested that anyone with a rate above 4% should move to refinance. In terms of market demand for houses, He noted that the largest population demographic is in the 28-30 year old millenniums; with 33 the median age for first time house buyers there is impetus developing for increased demand. Millennials and the following generation Z are forecast to increase household formations in the US by over 12 million between 2018 and 2023, offsetting the decline in older age groups for a total increase of 6.3 million over the period. The situation in Connecticut for these younger groups is very different however: the millennial population is down by 30,000 over the past ten years. Housing demand is high and prices are, too, deterring all but the wealthier part of that generation from buying in-state. In terms of home sales overall in the US, 2020 was the best year since 2006 , and 2021 is looking to be better. This has been driven by low rates for the younger generation and a move to more space for the older generation X as the work from home movement developed over the year. The demand should be maintained even as the pandemic recedes with as many as 25% of workers remaining home-based. That will impact home equity, which increased an average of 4.8% from 2010 to 2020 in the country, but only 0.7% in Fairfield County: the forecast is for US growth of 7.9% in 2021 and 3.2% in 2022, but a greater rate of 9.7% and 4.4% for Fairfield County.
The slide pack and a video of Dr. Nothaft’s presentation can be accessed via the links below:
Presentation video: https://youtu.be/bDdY3cObbKw
Presentation slides: Darien Mens Assn 3-10-21 Nothaft
Kuhner will be taking up from the point where he left off in his presentation on February 3rd – somewhere in Indonesia, relating the tale of how he and Kitty, his wife, completed their first circumnavigation of the globe in four years after setting off in 1971.
John Hamilton will speak on the field of addiction treatment and prevention. He is nationally recognized as an expert in this field. He brings three decades of experience to his role as president and CEO of Liberation Programs and also chairs the Advisory Board for the Connecticut Department of Mental Health and Addiction Services and serves on the Governor’s Alcohol and Drug Policy Council. Previously, John was chief clinical outreach officer at Mountainside Treatment Center, a nationally acclaimed drug rehabilitation center with locations in New York and Connecticut. He served as CIO of Recovery Network of Programs, a nonprofit behavioral health agency serving the Greater Bridgeport Community. John is past chair of the Dissemination Committee for the National Institute for Drug Abuse Clinical Trials Network, past chair of the Community Treatment Providers Caucus, past president of the Southwest Connecticut Mental Health Board, past president of the New England Association of Drug Court Professionals and co-founder of the Greenwich Father’s Forum. In 2013, John was a recipient of the American Association for the Treatment of Opioid Dependence Nyswander-Dole Award for his contributions to the field of addiction treatment.
is chief executive officer of JetBlue Airways Corp., which encompasses JetBlue – New York’s Hometown Airline® – as well as subsidiaries JetBlue Technology Ventures and JetBlue Travel Products. He joined JetBlue in 2008 and served as the company’s executive vice president and chief commercial officer until becoming president of the airline in January 2014. In February 2015 he was appointed as JetBlue’s third chief executive officer.

Leila will be joined in her presentation by Emily Ciffone, Program Director at the Darien Nature Center. Emily received her undergraduate degree in biology from Binghamton University and her master’s degree in natural resources and environmental education from the University of Wisconsin. Her career in Nature Education started at the National Park Service, and she has also held roles at the University of Rhode Island Environmental Center and New Pond Farms. Emily has been teaching and building the unique program curriculum at the Darien Nature Center since 2013.
Captain Dave Adams, USN (ret.), is uniquely qualified to speak on the subject of naval rail guns. Captain Adams was class of 1990 at the University of Texas, Austin, and graduated with a BS in Mechanical Engineering, followed by postgraduate work leading to a masters, with distinction, in strategic planning. In turn, this led to his becoming speechwriter for the Chief of Naval Operations – probably safer than his next tour in Afghanistan, where he commanded the Joint/Interagency Provincial Reconstruction Team. He returned to take command of SSN-763, USS Santa Fe, followed by command of SSGN USS Georgia, a ‘boomer.’ He became Deputy Editor-in-Chief of the Naval Institute’s journal, “Proceedings,” where he made his reputation as a serious long-range geostrategic thinker as well as a critic of some of the Navy’s procedures and plans for future war-fighting.
Kiera Parrott became the Director of Darien Library in September 2020. Prior to that appointment, she was the Reviews and Production Director for Library Journal and School Library Journal, where she oversaw the publication of over 12,000 influential book and media reviews annually. Additionally, she launched and expanded numerous professional development events and training courses for library professionals nationwide. Kiera has been a proud library worker since her teen years, working as a page for the Queensborough Public Library in high school, as a reference assistant at the University of Massachusetts-Amherst during college, and as a senior librarian for the New York Public Library. She previously worked at Darien Library from 2008–2013 as a children’s/collection development librarian and as Head of Children’s Services. She lives in Norwalk with her husband (also a librarian) and their two cats.