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Current Affairs: Global Warming, Dec 13, 2018. Now 1:00 today

Discussion leader:Jack Neafsey

Discussion outline:

1-CYCLICAL TEMP/CO2 FLUCTUATIONS OVER THE PAST
       MINI ICE AGE FROM 1850 TO 1925
2-SCIENCE- NO HARD SCIENCE-ALL BASED ON MODELS DEVELOPED IN LATE 1980’S–MODELS HAVE BEEN         PROVEN TO BE WRONG
3-IMPACT- CO2 IS A FERTILIZER-15% OF CURRENT OUTPUT DUE TO CO2
   IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY–COST OF ALT FUELS W/O SUBSIDIES
4- PARIS ACCORD/ KTOTO PROTOCOL- US IS VIRTUALLY ALONE
       WORLDWIDE COAL USE IS INCREASING

Global Warming
What we probably agree on by Bob Baker:
Atmospheric CO2 levels are now at the highest of the past million years. This has occurred while CO2 emissions have risen since the start of the industrial revolution.

Current atmospheric level of 410 ppm compares to 280 ppm at start of industrial revolution
For the past 4-5 years CO2 emissions have leveled off at about 100 million tons per day.
This compares with about 60 million tons per day in 1990, when temperatures were rising.

Global temperatures have an erratic yr. to yr. change but have risen since 1950 by about .7 degree C at sea level and about 1 degree C at land surface.

In 1990, the temp. increases were at about their midpoint, such that if CO2 emissions were to drop to the 1990 level, we would not expect any decline in the rate of temperature increase.

The growth in CO2 emissions from fossil fuels has resulted from the consumer choice for consuming these fuels vs alternatives. The added cost for alternatives is not known.

What is at issue is the target in the “Paris Accords” to limit global temperature rise to 2.0 degrees C (but with a preferred target of a 1.5degree rise) in some target year. No agreed level of global emissions has been set; any reduction of atmospheric CO2 will need “CO2 capture and containment” which has not been demonstrated as feasible on a large scale. Lowering CO2 emissions does not lower atmospheric CO2 levels.

Estimated costs for meaningful reductions in fossil fuel use are huge, with the assumption that these will offset future costs of higher world temperatures.

About a billion persons do not have access to a reliable supply of electricity. What is the optimum method/cost for meeting this demand?

Several humanitarian uses for large expenditures can be identified which can yield with near-term results. (Between and one and two million persons die each year: lack of clean water, malaria, HIV and malnutrition).

What is the best use of huge mandated expenditures?

What’s with this wild weather? Blame an ‘extreme’ jet stream pattern.
The Washington Post

“Even veteran meteorologists with decades of experience are astounded,” said Capital Weather Gang’s severe weather expert.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/07/25/extreme-jet-stream-pattern-has-spurred-a-week-of-wild-weather-in-u-s/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.36353023b7f0

More from the Washington Post

WSJ – Economics of Climate Change

California’s Death Valley Will Have the Hottest Month Ever Recorded on Earth
Gizmodo

July has been one for extreme heat around the world, but every locale pales in comparison to what’s going on at Death Valley in California. Already one of the hottest places on the Earth, the heat has gone into overdrive this July. Death Valley is in line to set a record for the hottest month ever recorded on Earth.

https://earther.gizmodo.com/californias-death-valley-will-have-the-hottest-month-ev-1828001766

Startling new research suggests even faster rate of global warming
The Washington Post

More than 90 percent of global warming ends up in the oceans.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/10/31/startling-new-research-finds-large-buildup-heat-oceans-suggesting-faster-rate-global-warming/?utm_term=.28e9db8bea88

The Climate Won’t Crash the Economy

A worst-case scenario projects annual GDP growth will be slower by 0.05 percentage point.  WSJ 11/27/18

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-climate-wont-crash-the-economy-1543276899?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1

Climate Change Is Affordable

A new assessment allows us to think about good policy without panicking.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/climate-change-is-affordable-1543362461?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=6

You should read this.note the comment that U S emissions are declining and are now 14% versus China’s 27%. China’s are growing rapidly.how does the pact deal with China and India?   https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/05/climate/greenhouse-gas-emissions-2018.html

A paper by Carolyn Holmes Coffey (Joe Holmes’ daughter)

Current Affairs: Immigration Revisited, September 20, 2018

Discussion leaders: David Mace & Charlie Goodyear

Opening summary: Immigration Opening Comments

Migrants Are on the Rise Around the World, and Myths About Them Are Shaping Attitudes – The New York Times
Migrants Around the World

Key facts about U.S. immigration policies and proposed changes | Pew Research Center
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/02/26/key-facts-about-u-s-immigration-policies-and-proposed-changes/

Companies Say Trump Is Hurting Business by Limiting Legal Immigration – The New York Times

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/02/business/trump-legal-immigration-h1b-visas.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage


https://www.wola.org/analysis/fact-sheet-united-states-immigration-central-american-asylum-seekers/

https://www.epi.org/publication/immigration-facts/

https://theconversation.com/us/topics/immigration-411

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/16/us/immigration-family-chain-migration-foreign-born.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

Current Affairs: International Trade, October 18, 2018

Discussion leader: Harris Hester

International Trade – It’s complicated

Foreign Affairs.  Three Cheers for Trump’s Foreign Policy: What the establishment misses by Randy Schweller

Foreign Affairs & Trade

China’s Small Share of an iphone

China’s Share of iphone

This is a brief fact check on the relationship between the federal deficit and the trade deficit.

http://www.crfb.org/blogs/did-trade-deficit-cause-20-trillion-debt

This is a more in depth analysis of the same thing.

https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/us-trade-deficit-not-debt-repay

 

41-Straight-Years-Of-Trade-Deficits-Yet-America-Still-Stands-Strong

 

 

Wander West of Lincoln Center, June 19, 2018

Taylor Strubinger reports that on Tuesday, June 19, the Happy Wanderers will visit the area west of Lincoln Center.

After a short refreshment, we will continue in our effort to walk the entire Hudson River Greenway one section at a time.

This Tuesday, we will walk the Greenway from W. 74th Street to W. 34th Street.

Previously, we walked the Highline portion of the Greenway that runs from W. 34th Street to W. 12th Street.

We will be on the 8:36 a.m. train out of Darien and the 8:39 a.m. from Noroton. We will gather at the Information Booth in Grand Central Station before starting off.

Come join us.

Book Club: Moscow Nights : the Van Cliburn Story : How One Man and His Piano Transformed the Cold War by Nigel Cliff, July 11, 2018

Note we’ll meet on summer hours – 9:00 Mather Center.

Gripping narrative nonfiction that tells the dramatic story of a remarkable young Texan pianist, Van Cliburn, who played his way through the wall of fear built by the Cold War, won the hearts of the American and Russian people, and eased tensions between two superpowers on the brink of nuclear war.

In 1958, an unheralded twenty-three-year-old piano prodigy from Texas named Van Cliburn traveled to Moscow to compete in the First International Tchaikovsky Competition. The Soviets had no intention of bestowing their coveted prize on an unknown American; a Russian pianist had already been chosen to win. Yet when the gangly Texan with the shy grin took the stage and began to play, he instantly captivated an entire nation.

The Soviet people were charmed by Van Cliburn’s extraordinary talent, passion, and fresh-faced innocence, but it was his palpable love for the music that earned their devotion; for many, he played more like a Russian than their own musicians. As enraptured crowds mobbed Cliburn’s performances, pressure mounted to award him the competition prize. “Is he the best?” Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev demanded of the judges. “In that case . . . give him the prize!”

Adored by millions in the USSR, Cliburn returned to a thunderous hero’s welcome in the USA and became, for a time, an ambassador of hope for two dangerously hostile superpowers. In this thrilling, impeccably researched account, Nigel Cliff recreates the drama and tension of the Cold War era, and brings into focus the gifted musician and deeply compelling figure whose music would temporarily bridge the divide between two dangerously hostile powers.

 

Recommended by Gary Banks

In Memoriam Bill Shepard, Jr., May 29, 2018

William “Bill” Brown Shepard, Jr., 71, of Darien, CT and Naples, FL passed away suddenly on Tuesday, May 29th surrounded by his loved ones after a brief battle with metastatic melanoma cancer.

Bill was born in Summit, New Jersey to William and Mary Shepard. He graduated from The Pingry School and Wesleyan University where he had a long high school and college swimming career. He passed on a deep love of competitive and recreational swimming to his children and grandchildren, and any Shepard family vacation always included being on the water.

It was during college where he met his loving wife of 49 years, Midge, who came back the night they met and said “this is the first man I could consider marrying.”

After college they were married before Bill served a year in Vietnam as an officer stationed at a riverboat base. He returned home safely as a decorated Navy Vietnam combat veteran.

He then received his MBA from Columbia Business School and went on to have a fascinating international banking career that brought him and his family around the world. During his 40 year career he was fluent and successful across many cultures throughout Asia and the Middle East. He started at Manufacturers Hanover in New York City and later transferred with his family to Tokyo, Japan. After three years they returned to the US where he worked at Irving T rust Bank before another international assignment inSaudi Arabia at National Commercial Bank. He returned four years later and worked at Gulf International Bank in New York City before he and Midge moved to Houston for eight years where he ultimately retired as the head of US operations for Riyad Bank.

Bill’s greatest pride and joy was his family and his life revolved around them. He was immensely proud of the adults his children have become. He adored his five grandchildren.

He led a life of great joy and enthusiasm and found so many pleasures in living his life fully. He enjoyed boating, gardening (and then frequently moving each plant in his garden to find its perfect spot, much to the amusement of his family), attending sporting events for his children and grandchildren, reading about history and countless other topics, being active in his church and volunteer communities, and observing shore life on the beach in Naples. He was very active up until his passing and cherished his almost daily swims, bike rides, and beach walks with Midge.

Bill was a shining light of love, positive attitude, gratitude and optimism that was contagious and will be sorely missed. He recognized every day the many blessings he had in his life, including being the friend of many wonderful people. His outgoing and uplifting personality gave him a unique ability to connect with and touch people from all walks of life. He loved meeting people and to him strangers were just friends he hadn’t met yet.

He also found deep personal satisfaction and enjoyment in helping others, especially sponsoring, mentoring, and supporting those with substance abuse addiction, and volunteering in countless other ways.

Bill was an active member of St. Luke’s Episcopal Church in Darien, CT and Trinity-by-the-Cove Episcopal Church in Naples, FL. He was a member of the Country Club of Darien and the Darien Boat Club.

A proud husband, father, and grandfather who will be missed beyond belief, he is survived by his wife, Midge, and their three children, two daughters-in-law and five grandchildren: Trip and Tracy Shepard (Grace, Conor, Eric) of Darien, CT; Jay and Courtney Shepard (Jay and Blake) of Litchfield, CT; and Susan Shepard of New York, NY. He also leaves behind two brothers, Dick Shepard of Holland, MIand David Shepard of Kingston, MA.

A memorial service will be held at St. Luke’s Episcopal Church in Darien, CT on Saturday, June 9th at 4:30pm.There will be another memorial service in Naples, FL in the fall.

In lieu of flowers, the family requests you consider donating in Bill’s name to St Luke’s Parish in Darien, CT or New Beginnings in Naples, Florida where he volunteered:

St. Luke’s Parish
1864 Post Rd
Darien, CT 06820

New Beginnings Naples (care of Captain Peltz)
3710 Estey Avenue
Naples, FL 34104

Officers & Directors 2018-2019

Back row, left to right: Jan Selkowitz, Tony Yezzi, Jack Fitzgibbons, Bert von Stuelpnagel, Gehr Brown, Bob McGroarty, Chris Snyder

Front row, let to right: Tom Lom, Ray Meurer, Sunil Saksena, John Wolcott, Bryan Hooper, Bob Hughes, Gary Banks

 

 

Hike the Mianus River Gorge, May 29, 2018

Hiking Mianus River Gorg​e
167 Mianus River Road,
Bedford, NY 10506
Tuesday May 29, 2018
10.30 am

 

We will be hiking Mianus River Gorge in Bedford on Tuesday. May 29, 2018 at 10.30
am​ ( Note this 30 min later than our usual 10.00 am start).

The Gorge is a 750 acre preserve of old-growth forest that was established more than sixty years ago as the first
land project of the Nature Conservancy.  While the main trail is 4 miles long, part of it has been rendered inaccessible since a short stretch runs through private property over which the owners have recently denied access to the public. Thus our hike will be a relatively short one: a 2.5 mile loop. The outbound portion of the loop consists of a couple of sustained climbs along a gradual slope. The return is largely downward. The trail is well kept, well marked and rugged in
places. Visitors have the sense of a remote wilderness in the midst of an urban area. The gorge area is quite beautiful at this time of the year with the leaves providing plenty of shade. This promises to be a particularly enjoyable hike. Spouse are welcome.

Starting at 10.30, we should be done hiking by 12 noon. Lunch for the hungry will follow at the Long Ridge Tavern, 2635 Long Ridge Road, Stamford.

Directions: ( Google maps;Mianus River Gorge, Bedford)
Proceed South on the Merritt and take Exit 34 ( Long Ridge Road).
At the bottom of the exit ramp make a right and proceed north on Long Ridge approx
7.3 miles.
Make a left on Millers Mill Road and then after crossing the bridge, make another left on Mianus River Road (a dirt road).
About a half mile down this dirt road on the left is the entrance to the Mianus River Gorge. Plenty of parking is available.
Be alert​: its easy to miss Miller’s Mill Road. Check your odometer when you enter LongRidge Road from the Merritt so you know when you have traveled 7.3 miles. Two helpfullandmarks to watch for: Twin Lakes Drive on the right come just before you turn left onMiller’s Run. Also house number 116 on the right is just across the road from Miller’s Run.

Contact for this hike: Sunil Saksena, ssaksena44@gmail.com, 203-561-8601 Cell

In Memoriam Larry Story, May 15, 2018

Lawrence Paul Story of Darien passed away on Tuesday, May 15, 2018. He had recently turned 81 years old.

Lawrence, known as Larry, was born on April 19th, 1937 in Queens, New York to Henry and Mary Story. He attended Drew University before serving as a Lieutenant in the Navy from 1959-1964 in the Pacific on USS Arnold J Isbell.

Larry and Lucille married in June 1964 and moved to Darien in 1966. Their most favorite times were sailing on Anjinsan II, their Tartan 3500, on Long Island Sound up to Edgartown or bareboating in the BVI’s. They were members of Noroton Yacht Club and Darien Boat Club.

For 40 years Larry was a Realtor in New Canaan where he was President of the board 6 times and President of CAR in 1996.

Larry had a wonderful sense of humor, always ready with a joke or a song, and was loved by his friends and family.

He is survived by his wife of 54 years, Lucille Story, sister Julie Tloczkowski, brother Thomas Story. His beloved children Kimberly, Lawrence, Elizabeth and grandchildren, Lawrence III, Liam, Colin, Maggie, Keegan and Kayleigh.

There will be a wake Thursday, May 31, 2018, 5:00-8:00 pm at the Edward Lawrence Funeral Home in Darien. Mass will be June 1st at 11:00 AM at Saint Luke’s Episcopal Church, 1864 Post Rd, Darien, followed by a military burial at Spring Grove Cemetery, Darien.

In lieu of flowers, please consider a contribution to the American Cancer Society, 38 Richards Avenue, Norwalk, CT 06854.

In Memoriam Buck Margold, May 7, 2018

Davis “Buck” Margold, a resident of Rowayton, CT, formerly of Darien, CT and Stratton, VT died on May 7, 2018. He was 78-years-old.

Mr. Margold spent most of his business career on the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange as a member. He bought his seat in 1967 and joined the firm of Carlisle-Jacqueline, later working for Wertheim & Company and the specialist firm of MJ Meehan. He was on the board of the NYSE Luncheon Club, later serving as its president. He was an avid skier and former Stratton Mountain School trustee. Buck was a founding member of the NYSE Interbourse Ski Team, competing against stock exchanges all over the world.

An accomplished sailor and lifelong boater, he was a member of the Corinthians, the Noroton Yacht Club and the New York Yacht Club, where he served on the Executive Committee, as Chairman of the House Committee, and as a trustee of the NYYC Foundation. He attended St. Luke’s School in New Canaan and Duke University.

Mr. Margold is survived by his wife of 46 years Linda Smith Margold, his children Dina Cummings and Doren Dolan, two stepchildren Darcy Ahl and Leonard Chappel and grandchildren, Braeden Cummings, Griffin Cummings, Jack Dolan, Henry Dolan, Grace Dolan, Cort Ahl, Kemper Ahl, Signe Ahl and Marley Chappel, as well as a sister, Lys Marigold.

A Jimmy Buffett fan, Buck enjoyed life to the fullest whether it was captaining his beloved “Salubrious” off the New England coast, enjoying mussels in Normandy or skiing (and après skiing) with his buddies in Vermont and the Alps. He will be missed by friends and family far and wide for being a true gentleman.

A memorial celebration is planned for Tuesday, May 29th at 1:30 pm at St. Luke’s Episcopal Church, 1864 Post Road in Darien, CT. Pastel attire encouraged.

In lieu of flowers, the family requests you consider donations to:

Hackers for Hope

Yale New Haven Smilow Cancer Center

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