Central American Immigrants in the US
Immigration is $7 trillion gift
An Analysis of the Senate Border Bill _ American Immigration Council
Immigration and labor shortages
The last Current Affairs unit of the year will explore the role that the Federal Reserve played coming out of the Pandemic. How did the Fed deal with its important mandate to preserve price stability? What could Jerome Powell have done differently? We will examine the three most significant policy tools available to a central bank in fighting inflation: interest rates; quantitative tightening; and coordination of monetary and fiscal strategies with Treasury. Since the viewpoints on these matters vary widely among the media and the public, discussions at this CA session are expected to be lively. Bert von Stuelpnagel will start with an introduction of the subject and moderate these discussions. He says that his two objectives for the session are (i) to better understand what happened, but also (ii) to allow participants to make an assessment of what interest rates might do going forward.
Bert wrote his master’s thesis at the State University in Munich on monetary policy in 1977. For the next 40 years he worked in the banking industry, always on the fixed income desk, ending his career as the head of dollar capital markets at BayernLB, New York. In the 1990s, he served on the board of the Financial Markets Association. In retirement, he has remained an avid Fed Watcher, always guessing what the Fed may be up to next, and appreciative of Chairman Greenspan’s one-liner that “if I made myself clear about future interest rates, you must have misunderstood”.
Recommended Readings:
Paul Krugman, Wonking Out – Are High Interest Rates the New Normal? New York Times, September 29, 2023
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/29/opinion/natural-interest-rate-higher.html
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, September 19-20 FOMC Meeting, Press Release
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20230920.htm
MarketWatch, Ray Dalio thinks the U.S. is courting a debt crisis. Are regulators moving fast enough to avert it? October 12, 2023
Reuters: Fed’s QT mix may be capping, not spurring, long term yields, October 11, 2023
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-qt-mix-may-be-capping-not-spurring-long-yields-2023-10-11/
Wall Street Journal: Where have all the Foreign Buyers Gone for US Treasury Debt, November 17, 2023
Forbes: Here is the Fed’s 2024 Meeting Schedule and Interest Rate Outlook, November 18, 2023
What are the effects of deregulation on commercial air travel? How are airlines trying to reinvent air travel as business travel declines? What will Artificial Intelligence mean to aviation? Are spare parts the airlines are using safe? What happens in the cockpit of a Navy jet when it is strafed by a Chinese jet? A pilot all of this career, Gunnar will tell us things we never knew about aviation.
Articles of interest
Your Pilot has a new job and a bigger plane to fly WSJ-Subscription required
Electric Planes, Once a Fantasy, Now Take to the Sky
Why Planes Were Grounded for the First Time Since 9/11
Spate of Runway Near Misses Casts Shadow Over Summer Travel
More Workers Are Getting Hurt on the Tarmac. ‘It Was Really Frightening.’
Airlines, Regulators Weigh More Cockpit Safety Alerts After Close Calls on Runways
Delta, Southwest Search for Jet Engines Parts Sold With Forges Safety Records
American Airlines’ Radical Plan to Reinvent Business Travel
Revenge Travel Fizzles for Budget Airlines
There are a number of options to fix Social Security. Some of the most common proposals include: raising the payroll tax, lifting the cap on taxable wages, means-testing benefits, providing incentives to take the benefits later, privatizing social security, etc.. We anticipate a lively discussion on what are reasonable solutions. Whether or not they could pass Congress is anyone’s guess, but ideally, we need solutions that would have broad appeal and support.
How Darien should develop its purchase of Great Island rests primarily on the Italian Palazzo mansion and the horse stable with arched ceilings taken from Grand Central Station. Two monumental assets require enormous expenses to refurbish and maintain, expenses that taxpayers will resist shouldering. Our town will have to consider the whole gamut of possibilities from commercial development, for example, the palazzo privately developed into a Relais Chateaux Hotel by a group holding a long-term lease, to a complete teardown of the buildings and cleared into parkland.
Background Material
Beka Sturges Presentation to DMA, October 11, 2023
Darien TV79 Playlist of video tours and committee meetings concerning Great Island.
Jan Selkowitz is a veteran China watcher. There is no more important foreign affairs issue facing this administration than our complex relationship with Xi Jinping and China. Are we friends or enemies? Can we cooperate on important technology issues like Artificial intelligence, or are we headed into a Cold War? What is the future of Taiwan? How aggressively should we be providing them with military resources? What are China’s challenges going forward? How is their Belt and Road initiative doing? Some Geopolitical commentators predict with their aging demographics, China’s days as a world power will be over in the next decade. Others strongly disagree.
You won’t want to miss this discussion on May 18th at 2 pm moderated by Jan Selkowitz.
Background Material
What Does Xi Want? YouTube Video May 11, 2023
Is China’s Power about to Peak The Economist May 11. 2023 Subscription Required
Just How Good can Chinas Get at AI The Economist May 11, 2023 Subscription Required
What’s China’s growing role on the world stage mean for the U.S. ? NPR April 30, 2023
America, China and a Crisis of Trust Tom Friedman New York Times April 14, 2023 Subscription required
A Country in Flux: Recent and Future policy shifts in China Brookings Institute March 10, 2023
U.S Taiwan Relations: Will China’s challenge lead to a crisis? Brookings Institute May 1, 2023
Peter Zeihan: Decoding China’s Destiny April 2023
Current Affairs: April 27 at 2 p.m. at the DCA and on Zoom. Voting Integrity.
Last year, Current Affairs had a lively discussion on voting rights.
The flip side is voting integrity. Having made a career in accounting for the world’s largest corporations, which requires great accuracy and verifiable data, DMA member and CPA John Wolcott will look first at how our elections’ votes are cast, collected, stored and counted. Disputes in this process have created recent mistrust.
John will then review some possible common sense solutions to ensure that future election counts are less subject to dispute by any party or faction.
You may ask how these might be implemented. Of course, that is part of the debate. Our conversation about John’s analysis and recommendations may lead to some solid findings in that area too.
Join us for a discussion of this timely issue. We should all try to be as well-informed as possible before the next election cycle!
Watch: Black Americans Debunk Liberal Talking Point that Voter ID is ‘Racist’: They’re Ignorant.
Best Practices and Standards for Election Audits
The Free Consent of the People: Thomas Hooker and the Fundamental Orders
“Here’s the (almost) perfect voting device. More to come”
On November 30, 2022 Open AI released a user- friendly application called ChatGPT. It
took the world by storm—within 5 days it had 1 million users and within two months that
number had exploded to 100 million. It was the fastest diffusion of a new technology in
history. Known as ”Generative AI” it can generate impressive content on almost any
subject at any level of expertise and answer almost any question with confidence in a
user- friendly way. This technology is sometimes wrong but never in doubt. Its rapid
acceptance by the public has set off an arms race among the big tech companies
(Microsoft, Google, Baidu, Alibaba, Meta) to incorporate this technology into their
products.
As an indication of its expertise and versatility ChatGPT has passed bar exams, medical
school exams and the Wharton MBA final exam.
But it also has problems: it cannot distinguish truth from falsehood, it displays bias and
never reveals its sources. Once these problems are resolved, the impact of this
technology on different kinds of jobs is likely to be enormous, potentially reducing the
marginal cost of labor to zero.
Sunil Saksena will lead a discussion on this emerging technology and whether society is
adequately prepared for this revolution.
To try ChatGPT, click this link and select “Try ChatGPT” to register.
https://openai.com/blog/chatgpt/
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chatgpt-heralds-an-intellectual-revolution-enlightenment-artificial-intelligence-homo-technicus-technology-cognition-morality-philosophy-774331c6?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1
Without Consciousness, AIs Will Be Sociopaths
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/15/opinion/ai-chatgpt-lobbying-democracy.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
How ChatGPT Hijacks Democracy
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/16/technology/chatgpt-artificial-intelligence-universities.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
Alarmed by A.I. Chatbots, Universities Start Revamping How They Teach
https://www.axios.com/2023/01/18/chatgpt-ai-health-care-doctors
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GYeJC31JcM0
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/technology/chatgpt-openai-artificial-intelligence.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
How ChatGPT Kicked Off an A.I. Arms Race
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/08/technology/microsoft-bing-openai-artificial-intelligence.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
Bing (Yes, Bing) Just Made Search Interesting Again
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/08/technology/ai-chatbots-disinformation.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
Disinformation Researchers Raise Alarms About A.I. Chatbots
AI Boom Could Make Google, Microsoft More Powerful
Emmy award-winning International journalist Forrest Sawyer will moderate our discussion. One year ago, Russia invaded Ukraine, expecting to control the country in just days. Instead, Vladimir Putin has committed the greatest military blunder since Hitler’s defeat at Stalingrad. With NATO’s assistance, Ukraine is now on offense. Can Russia be defeated? Could the war spread, involving NATO and even nuclear weapons, or is a negotiated settlement possible? Most critically, how will the war’s end impact a world already on the brink? Join us for this important discussion
Putin’s Brain and the Ukrainian Disaster. What does the Russian Leader Really Want?
Is Putin still in power and at war? What are the key trends that may determine the future of the EU and NATO? How’s the energy situation looking as winter looms? Don Loomis will start the discussion with his perspective on Italy (based on his years of experience there) which recently had a sea change in its government. Mark Nunan will report briefly on central Europe and the countries’ historically slightly different views. Together, Don and Mark look forward to leading a lively discussion. We expect our usual congenial group of DMAers to join us, but all of you with an interest in or ties to Europe are welcome (including friends there who wish to Zoom in). Even if you are not a regular, be sure and join us. We need your valuable insights.
The November elections will be over. Will the results be accepted? Mark Nunan and Mike Wheeler will lead a discussion about life today in the Red States and the Blue states. Every Major publication has written a story about the potential of a Civil War or that Democracy is on the ballot. We will summarize the results and then have a group discussion on their conflicting positions.
Records: Too many votes in 37% of Detroit precincts- Detroit News 2016
How Many Election Deniers are on the Ballot and How are they expected to do? The Brookings Institute
In heated Arizona Governor’s Race, Calls grow for Democrat to Recuse Herself as Elections Chief
KT McFarland reacts to ex-FBI agent getting no jail time for Altering Russia probe doc
Extremist Groups are going to disrupt the midterms-Axios
Michigan still counting, angry Poll Watchers from both parties barred in Detroit- Reuters.
Why some in the GOP does not trust the FBI Any more to be nonpartisan New York Times
The Latest Government report: 15 million mail ballots in 2020 that are unaccounted for
The State-by-state splintering of American Policy-The Economist
Is America Headed for Another Civil War-New York Times
Is the United States headed for a civil war-Washington Post
Half of Americans anticipate a Civil War-Science Magazine
No-We are not headed for another Civil War-Politco
BU Historian answers: Are we headed for another Civil War?
More than 40% of Americans think there will be a Civil War within the Decaded-The Guardian
Is America Headed for a Civil War-Washington Times
Writer Explains why he stopped worrying America was headed toward a Civil War-MSNBC
Can America drop this silly idea its headed for another Civil War? -Civil Affairs Magazine
An Expert on civil war issues a warning to the United States-The Economist
Is America headed for a Civil War-Financial Times
America is headed for a civil war: Racism-Al Jazeera
How to Save America from a Second Civil War-Time
The State of Disunion-NPR and Throughline 10/27/22
Harvard political science professor says 2nc Civil War unlikely-Harvard Gazette
How Seriously should we take talk of US State succession? -The Economist
The Quiet Insurrection the January 6th Committee missed?
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