Jan Selkowitz is a veteran China watcher.  There is no more important foreign affairs issue facing this administration than our complex relationship with Xi Jinping and China. Are we friends or enemies?  Can we cooperate on important technology issues like Artificial intelligence, or are we headed into a Cold War?  What is the future of Taiwan?  How aggressively should we be providing them with military resources?  What are China’s challenges going forward?  How is their Belt and Road initiative doing? Some Geopolitical commentators predict with their aging demographics, China’s days as a world power will be over in the next decade. Others strongly disagree.

You won’t want to miss this discussion on May 18th at 2 pm moderated by Jan Selkowitz.

Background Material

What Does Xi Want?  YouTube Video May 11, 2023

Is China’s Power about to Peak   The Economist May 11. 2023  Subscription Required

Just How Good can Chinas Get at AI  The Economist May 11, 2023 Subscription Required

What’s China’s growing role on the world stage mean for the U.S. ?    NPR April 30, 2023

America, China and a Crisis of Trust   Tom Friedman New York Times April 14, 2023  Subscription required

A Country in Flux: Recent and Future policy shifts in China   Brookings Institute March 10, 2023

U.S Taiwan Relations: Will China’s challenge lead to a crisis?  Brookings Institute May 1, 2023

Peter Zeihan: Decoding China’s Destiny   April 2023

On November 30, 2022 Open AI released a user- friendly application called ChatGPT. It

took the world by storm—within 5 days it had 1 million users and within two months that

number had exploded to 100 million. It was the fastest diffusion of a new technology in

history. Known as ”Generative AI” it can generate impressive content on almost any

subject at any level of expertise and answer almost any question with confidence in a

user- friendly way. This technology is sometimes wrong but never in doubt. Its rapid

acceptance by the public has set off an arms race among the big tech companies

(Microsoft, Google, Baidu, Alibaba, Meta) to incorporate this technology into their

products.

As an indication of its expertise and versatility ChatGPT has passed bar exams, medical

school exams and the Wharton MBA final exam.

But it also has problems: it cannot distinguish truth from falsehood, it displays bias and

never reveals its sources. Once these problems are resolved, the impact of this

technology on different kinds of jobs is likely to be enormous, potentially reducing the

marginal cost of labor to zero.

Sunil Saksena will lead a discussion on this emerging technology and whether society is

adequately prepared for this revolution.

To try ChatGPT, click this link and select “Try ChatGPT” to register.
https://openai.com/blog/chatgpt/

IntelligenceSquared 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chatgpt-heralds-an-intellectual-revolution-enlightenment-artificial-intelligence-homo-technicus-technology-cognition-morality-philosophy-774331c6?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1

Emmy award-winning International journalist Forrest Sawyer will moderate our discussion. One year ago, Russia invaded Ukraine, expecting to control the country in just days. Instead, Vladimir Putin has committed the greatest military blunder since Hitler’s defeat at Stalingrad. With NATO’s assistance, Ukraine is now on offense. Can Russia be defeated? Could the war spread, involving NATO and even nuclear weapons, or is a negotiated settlement possible? Most critically, how will the war’s end impact a world already on the brink? Join us for this important discussion 

Making Sense of Putin’s War 

Putin’s Brain and the Ukrainian Disaster. What does the Russian Leader Really Want? 

Putin’s War-The Inside story of a catastrophe

It’s Time to Prepare for Ukrainian Peace

Is Putin still in power and at war? What are the key trends that may determine the future of the EU and NATO? How’s the energy situation looking as winter looms?  Don Loomis will start the discussion with his perspective on Italy (based on his years of experience there) which recently had a sea change in its government. Mark Nunan will report briefly on central Europe and the countries’ historically slightly different views. Together, Don and Mark look forward to leading a lively discussion. We expect our usual congenial group of DMAers to join us, but all of you with an interest in or ties to Europe are welcome (including friends there who wish to Zoom in). Even if you are not a regular, be sure and join us. We need your valuable insights.

Don Loomis backgrounder

Russian Economic Impact Slide Deck – August 2022 v6

The November elections will be over. Will the results be accepted? Mark Nunan and Mike Wheeler will lead a discussion about life today in the Red States and the Blue states. Every Major publication has written a story about the potential of a Civil War or that Democracy is on the ballot. We will summarize the results and then have a group discussion on their conflicting positions.

Records: Too many votes in 37% of Detroit precincts- Detroit News  2016

Is Democracy on the ballot? How many election deniers are on the ballot in 2022 who will have responsibility for future elections? The Brookings Institute

How Many Election Deniers are on the Ballot and How are they expected to do? The Brookings Institute

In heated Arizona Governor’s Race, Calls grow for Democrat to Recuse Herself as Elections Chief 

KT McFarland reacts to ex-FBI agent getting no jail time for Altering Russia probe doc

Extremist Groups are going to disrupt the midterms-Axios  

Michigan still counting, angry Poll Watchers from both parties barred in Detroit- Reuters. 

Why some in the GOP does not trust the FBI Any more to be nonpartisan  New York Times

The Latest Government report: 15 million mail ballots in 2020 that are unaccounted for 

The State-by-state splintering of American Policy-The Economist 

Is America Headed for Another Civil War-New York Times

Is the United States headed for a civil war-Washington Post

Half of Americans anticipate a Civil War-Science Magazine 

No-We are not headed for another Civil War-Politco 

BU Historian answers: Are we headed for another Civil War?

More than 40% of Americans think there will be a Civil War within the Decaded-The Guardian 

Is America Headed for a Civil War-Washington Times 

Writer Explains why he stopped worrying America was headed toward a Civil War-MSNBC

Can America drop this silly idea its headed for another Civil War? -Civil Affairs Magazine 

An Expert on civil war issues a warning to the United States-The Economist

Is America headed for a Civil War-Financial Times 

America is headed for a civil war: Racism-Al Jazeera 

How to Save America from a Second Civil War-Time  

The State of Disunion-NPR and Throughline 10/27/22 

Harvard political science professor says 2nc Civil War unlikely-Harvard Gazette 

How Seriously should we take talk of US State succession? -The Economist 

The Quiet Insurrection the January 6th Committee missed? 

John Wolcott will lead the discussion that was originally planned for Part 2 of our CA last spring.  His presentation remains unchanged.

Last February, Vince Arguimbau led a discussion entitled, “Agreed carbon emissions cause global warming, but is it an existential threat?” continuing to say, “If scarce resources were maximally devoted to reducing emissions then would the result be worth the cost? If not then how do we efficiently allocate resources to ameliorate and adapt to the changing environment?”

The first IPCC report on the existential threat of global warming was issued in 1990. Since then the debate has degenerated into two polar opposite factions battling from ever more distant ends of the spectrum to the point where each is talking past the other at increasing volume and vehemence.

Accordingly, let’s not debate whether GW is settled science or merely religion, but instead begin a conversation as to how the Global Warming/Climate Change/ Existential threat might be more fully addressed

Articles of Interest

Babcock Ranch Survives Ian 30 miles from Ft. Meyers 

Libertarian vs Authoritarian
Post: Europe’s version of the burning of the Amazon rainforests

US oil industry MOCKs Bideo after OPEC announced production cuts: Energy groups say administration now has no choice but to come “crawling back” to domestic producers. 

Mark Mills, physicist and Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute

https://dariendma.org/wp-content/uploads/All-Elec-Cars-by-2035-2.mp4

China’s Coal Power Boom 

ESG Does Neither Much Good nor Very Well

The Coming Global Crisis of Climate Policy

Climate Gains are ‘inconvenient truth”-It’s not all bad news for the environment.

The real-world consequences of green extremism. 

The net-zero transition: What it would cost, what it could bring

Kiera Parrott, Director of the Darien Library will join us to  talk about Darien’s policy for adding and removing books and other materials to the collection, also known as a “Collection Development Policy.”

We are postponing to the fall revisiting our discussion on alternative points of view on Global warming, Some told us we missed points of view. When we return in the fall John Wolcott will give an alternative point of view for us to discuss.

Then, if we have time,  we are going to wrap up the year by discussing what the headlines are on May 12th. What’s on your mind? What is being discussed around the dinner table or golf course or wandering or hikes or bridge table, bowling alley, or the Pickleball court?

Some subjects have been suggested below. 

Book Banning

These are books school systems don’t want you to read and why

Public Libraries Face Escalating Book Challenges 

Book Ban Efforts Expand Across the United States 

Book Banning 

Banned Books Display in Maryland disturbs parents 

In Some States “Don’t Say Gay Bills Have Been Around for a While 

“Unparalleled in intensity-1,500 book bans in US School

Global Warming

Unsettled? What Climate Science Tells Us, What it doesn’t. 

Net-Zero America: Potential Pathways, Infrastructure, and Impacts

Psychological Strategies for the Long Haul of Climate Action  I Opinion  Newsweek

With what we know when we meet,  what is your view of Darien”s purchase of Great Island? 

On April 22nd, Jim Phillips will lead a Current Affairs discussion of the Electoral College. Its history and whether it is still relevant today. There are numerous arguments to change the system, but no one has come up with a better alternative; and if they did, it would be extremely difficult to receive enough votes to amend the Constitution. This should be a lively discussion given how it affected the 2016 Presidential election and others before that.