On November 30, 2022 Open AI released a user- friendly application called ChatGPT. It

took the world by storm—within 5 days it had 1 million users and within two months that

number had exploded to 100 million. It was the fastest diffusion of a new technology in

history. Known as ”Generative AI” it can generate impressive content on almost any

subject at any level of expertise and answer almost any question with confidence in a

user- friendly way. This technology is sometimes wrong but never in doubt. Its rapid

acceptance by the public has set off an arms race among the big tech companies

(Microsoft, Google, Baidu, Alibaba, Meta) to incorporate this technology into their

products.

As an indication of its expertise and versatility ChatGPT has passed bar exams, medical

school exams and the Wharton MBA final exam.

But it also has problems: it cannot distinguish truth from falsehood, it displays bias and

never reveals its sources. Once these problems are resolved, the impact of this

technology on different kinds of jobs is likely to be enormous, potentially reducing the

marginal cost of labor to zero.

Sunil Saksena will lead a discussion on this emerging technology and whether society is

adequately prepared for this revolution.

To try ChatGPT, click this link and select “Try ChatGPT” to register.
https://openai.com/blog/chatgpt/

IntelligenceSquared 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chatgpt-heralds-an-intellectual-revolution-enlightenment-artificial-intelligence-homo-technicus-technology-cognition-morality-philosophy-774331c6?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1

Emmy award-winning International journalist Forrest Sawyer will moderate our discussion. One year ago, Russia invaded Ukraine, expecting to control the country in just days. Instead, Vladimir Putin has committed the greatest military blunder since Hitler’s defeat at Stalingrad. With NATO’s assistance, Ukraine is now on offense. Can Russia be defeated? Could the war spread, involving NATO and even nuclear weapons, or is a negotiated settlement possible? Most critically, how will the war’s end impact a world already on the brink? Join us for this important discussion 

Making Sense of Putin’s War 

Putin’s Brain and the Ukrainian Disaster. What does the Russian Leader Really Want? 

Putin’s War-The Inside story of a catastrophe

It’s Time to Prepare for Ukrainian Peace

Is Putin still in power and at war? What are the key trends that may determine the future of the EU and NATO? How’s the energy situation looking as winter looms?  Don Loomis will start the discussion with his perspective on Italy (based on his years of experience there) which recently had a sea change in its government. Mark Nunan will report briefly on central Europe and the countries’ historically slightly different views. Together, Don and Mark look forward to leading a lively discussion. We expect our usual congenial group of DMAers to join us, but all of you with an interest in or ties to Europe are welcome (including friends there who wish to Zoom in). Even if you are not a regular, be sure and join us. We need your valuable insights.

Don Loomis backgrounder

Russian Economic Impact Slide Deck – August 2022 v6

The November elections will be over. Will the results be accepted? Mark Nunan and Mike Wheeler will lead a discussion about life today in the Red States and the Blue states. Every Major publication has written a story about the potential of a Civil War or that Democracy is on the ballot. We will summarize the results and then have a group discussion on their conflicting positions.

Records: Too many votes in 37% of Detroit precincts- Detroit News  2016

Is Democracy on the ballot? How many election deniers are on the ballot in 2022 who will have responsibility for future elections? The Brookings Institute

How Many Election Deniers are on the Ballot and How are they expected to do? The Brookings Institute

In heated Arizona Governor’s Race, Calls grow for Democrat to Recuse Herself as Elections Chief 

KT McFarland reacts to ex-FBI agent getting no jail time for Altering Russia probe doc

Extremist Groups are going to disrupt the midterms-Axios  

Michigan still counting, angry Poll Watchers from both parties barred in Detroit- Reuters. 

Why some in the GOP does not trust the FBI Any more to be nonpartisan  New York Times

The Latest Government report: 15 million mail ballots in 2020 that are unaccounted for 

The State-by-state splintering of American Policy-The Economist 

Is America Headed for Another Civil War-New York Times

Is the United States headed for a civil war-Washington Post

Half of Americans anticipate a Civil War-Science Magazine 

No-We are not headed for another Civil War-Politco 

BU Historian answers: Are we headed for another Civil War?

More than 40% of Americans think there will be a Civil War within the Decaded-The Guardian 

Is America Headed for a Civil War-Washington Times 

Writer Explains why he stopped worrying America was headed toward a Civil War-MSNBC

Can America drop this silly idea its headed for another Civil War? -Civil Affairs Magazine 

An Expert on civil war issues a warning to the United States-The Economist

Is America headed for a Civil War-Financial Times 

America is headed for a civil war: Racism-Al Jazeera 

How to Save America from a Second Civil War-Time  

The State of Disunion-NPR and Throughline 10/27/22 

Harvard political science professor says 2nc Civil War unlikely-Harvard Gazette 

How Seriously should we take talk of US State succession? -The Economist 

The Quiet Insurrection the January 6th Committee missed? 

John Wolcott will lead the discussion that was originally planned for Part 2 of our CA last spring.  His presentation remains unchanged.

Last February, Vince Arguimbau led a discussion entitled, “Agreed carbon emissions cause global warming, but is it an existential threat?” continuing to say, “If scarce resources were maximally devoted to reducing emissions then would the result be worth the cost? If not then how do we efficiently allocate resources to ameliorate and adapt to the changing environment?”

The first IPCC report on the existential threat of global warming was issued in 1990. Since then the debate has degenerated into two polar opposite factions battling from ever more distant ends of the spectrum to the point where each is talking past the other at increasing volume and vehemence.

Accordingly, let’s not debate whether GW is settled science or merely religion, but instead begin a conversation as to how the Global Warming/Climate Change/ Existential threat might be more fully addressed

Articles of Interest

Babcock Ranch Survives Ian 30 miles from Ft. Meyers 

Libertarian vs Authoritarian
Post: Europe’s version of the burning of the Amazon rainforests

US oil industry MOCKs Bideo after OPEC announced production cuts: Energy groups say administration now has no choice but to come “crawling back” to domestic producers. 

Mark Mills, physicist and Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute

https://dariendma.org/wp-content/uploads/All-Elec-Cars-by-2035-2.mp4

China’s Coal Power Boom 

ESG Does Neither Much Good nor Very Well

The Coming Global Crisis of Climate Policy

Climate Gains are ‘inconvenient truth”-It’s not all bad news for the environment.

The real-world consequences of green extremism. 

The net-zero transition: What it would cost, what it could bring

Kiera Parrott, Director of the Darien Library will join us to  talk about Darien’s policy for adding and removing books and other materials to the collection, also known as a “Collection Development Policy.”

We are postponing to the fall revisiting our discussion on alternative points of view on Global warming, Some told us we missed points of view. When we return in the fall John Wolcott will give an alternative point of view for us to discuss.

Then, if we have time,  we are going to wrap up the year by discussing what the headlines are on May 12th. What’s on your mind? What is being discussed around the dinner table or golf course or wandering or hikes or bridge table, bowling alley, or the Pickleball court?

Some subjects have been suggested below. 

Book Banning

These are books school systems don’t want you to read and why

Public Libraries Face Escalating Book Challenges 

Book Ban Efforts Expand Across the United States 

Book Banning 

Banned Books Display in Maryland disturbs parents 

In Some States “Don’t Say Gay Bills Have Been Around for a While 

“Unparalleled in intensity-1,500 book bans in US School

Global Warming

Unsettled? What Climate Science Tells Us, What it doesn’t. 

Net-Zero America: Potential Pathways, Infrastructure, and Impacts

Psychological Strategies for the Long Haul of Climate Action  I Opinion  Newsweek

With what we know when we meet,  what is your view of Darien”s purchase of Great Island? 

On April 22nd, Jim Phillips will lead a Current Affairs discussion of the Electoral College. Its history and whether it is still relevant today. There are numerous arguments to change the system, but no one has come up with a better alternative; and if they did, it would be extremely difficult to receive enough votes to amend the Constitution. This should be a lively discussion given how it affected the 2016 Presidential election and others before that.

Current Affairs: Quadrennial Report of the National  Intelligence Council, Friday, January 28, 2022, at 11 am 

White paper summarizing the issues: DMA Current Affairs White Paper January 2022

On Friday, January 28, at 11 am, Tom Igoe will lead a Current Affairs discussion on the latest  quadrennial report of The National Intelligence Council (NIC or Council) entitled Global Trends  2040: A More Contested World. The NIC supports the Director of National Intelligence in her role  as head of the Intelligence Community and is the IC’s center for long-term strategic analysis. Since  its establishment in 1979, the NIC has served as a bridge between the intelligence and policy  communities, a source of deep substantive expertise on intelligence issues, and a facilitator of  Intelligence Community collaboration and outreach. 

The NIC’s report is typically released at the start of each new administration with the intent of  providing guidance as to the key trends and uncertainties that will shape the strategic  environment for the United States during the next two decades. The goal of this report is not to  offer a specific prediction of the world in 2040 but rather to help policymakers and citizens see  what may lie beyond the horizon and prepare for an array of possible futures. 

As the report notes in its sobering introductory passages, during the past year, the COVID-19  pandemic has reminded the world of its fragility and demonstrated the inherent risks of high  levels of interdependence. In coming years and decades, the world will face more intense and  cascading global challenges ranging from disease to climate change to disruptions from new  technologies and financial crises. These challenges will repeatedly test the resilience and  adaptability of communities, states and the international system, often exceeding the capacity  of existing systems and models. This looming disequilibrium between existing and future  challenges and the ability of institutions and systems to respond is likely to grow and produce  greater contestation at every level.  

In this more contested world, communities are increasingly fractured as people seek security  with like-minded groups based on established and newly prominent identities; states of all types  and in all regions are struggling to meet the needs and expectations of more connected, more  urban, and more empowered populations; and the international system is more competitive – shaped in part by challenges from a rising China – and at greater risk of conflict as states and  nonstate actors exploit new sources of power and erode longstanding norms and institutions that  have provided some stability in past decades. 

The NIC asserts that these dynamics are not fixed in perpetuity, however, and envisions a variety  of plausible scenarios for the world of 2040 – from a democratic renaissance to a transformation  in global cooperation spurred by shared tragedy – depending on how these dynamics interact  and human choices along the way. 

The Global Trends 2040 report, a copy of which can be accessed by clicking the link below, is a  detailed 145-page document that provides a broad range of factual and analytical material. It is  well written and thought provoking. Given its length, some DMA members may not have the time 

or the desire to plow through the entire document. For these folks, I encourage you to read the  Foreword Section (pps. v and vi), the Introduction: Key Themes (pp. 1 – 5), the Executive  Summary (pp. 6 – 13), the Scenarios for 2040 (pp. 109 – 119), and the informative charts included  at the back end under the heading Regional Forecasts (pp. 120 – 140).  

Navigating this report can be humbling. It’s also an experience that awakens many new  understandings and thoughts on possible outcomes for the long-term prospects of the world in  which we live. In advance of our Current Affairs discussion, Mike Wheeler will send to the discussion group a poll eliciting your thoughts. The results will be shared at the conclusion of our discussions. 

Given the complexity of the subject matter and the numerous areas to be covered, members may  expect the discussion to continue for up to an hour and a half from the 11 am start time. 

The following includes links to the Global Trends report and additional reading materials intended  to supplement the information included in the report:

1. National Intelligence Estimate: Climate Change and International Responses Increasing  Challenges to U.S. National Security Through 2040, dated October 2021:  https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/NIE_Climate_Change_and_N ational_Security.pdf
2. Department of Defense Climate Risk Analysis, dated October 2021:  https://media.defense.gov/2021/Oct/21/2002877353/-1/-1/0/DOD-CLIMATE-RISK-ANALYSIS-FINAL.PDF
3. Wall Street Journal Opinion Piece by Graham Allison and Eric Schmidt, dated December  8, 2021: China Will Soon Lead the U.S. in Tech: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-will-soon-lead-the-us-in-tech-global-leader-semiconductors-5g-wireless-green-energy-11638915759?st=rsg20va9jcntz7m&reflink=article_email_share
4. Wall Street Journal Opinion Piece by Henry Kissinger, Eric Schmidt and Daniel  Huttenlocher, dated November 2, 2021: The Challenge of Being Human in the Age of AI:  https://www.wsj.com/articles/being-human-artifical-intelligence-ai-chess-antibiotic-philosophy-ethics-bill-of-rights-11635795271?st=hamxya5815muur0&reflink=article_email_share
5. Wall Street Journal Book Review by Tunku Varadarajan, dated November 20, 2021: The  Principles for Dealing With the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio:  https://www.wsj.com/articles/principles-for-dealing-with-the-changing-world-order-book-review-ray-dalio-trouble-ahead-as-usual-11637335545?st=qom93w21su8v8n5&reflink=article_email_share
6. Spiked-Online Opinion Piece Why China Haunts America by Phil Mullan, dated  December 31, 2021: https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/12/31/why-china-haunts-america/
7. Foreign Affairs Article, China’s Economic Reckoning: The Price of Failed Reforms by  Daniel H. Rosen: Current Affairs China’s Economic Reckoning  
8. Wall Street Journal Review Piece, dated January 15-16, 2022, by Kathryn Stoner: The  Putin Puzzle: Why Ukraine/ Why Now?  https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-putin-puzzle-why-ukraine-why-now-11642175999?st=yaqpxmecnayrvxb&reflink=article_email_share
9. Wall Street Journal Opinion Piece, dated June 23, 2021, by Thomas Grove: Melting Arctic  Ice Pits Russia Against U.S. and China for Control of the New Shipping Route:  https://www.wsj.com/articles/melting-arctic-ice-pits-russia-against-u-s-and-china-for-control-of-new-shipping-route-11624445504?mod=Searchresults_pos2&page=1
10. Putin Has the U.S. Right Where He Wants ItVladimir Putin’s aim is bigger than closing NATO’s “open door” to Ukraine and taking more territory.https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/24/opinion/russia-ukraine-putin-biden.html?smid=em-share

Global Trends Report: GlobalTrends_2040

Given the complexity of the subject matter and the numerous areas to be covered, members may expect the discussion to continue for up to an hour and a half from the 11 am start time.