Current Affairs: Quadrennial Report of the National  Intelligence Council, Friday, January 28, 2022, at 11 am 

White paper summarizing the issues: DMA Current Affairs White Paper January 2022

On Friday, January 28, at 11 am, Tom Igoe will lead a Current Affairs discussion on the latest  quadrennial report of The National Intelligence Council (NIC or Council) entitled Global Trends  2040: A More Contested World. The NIC supports the Director of National Intelligence in her role  as head of the Intelligence Community and is the IC’s center for long-term strategic analysis. Since  its establishment in 1979, the NIC has served as a bridge between the intelligence and policy  communities, a source of deep substantive expertise on intelligence issues, and a facilitator of  Intelligence Community collaboration and outreach. 

The NIC’s report is typically released at the start of each new administration with the intent of  providing guidance as to the key trends and uncertainties that will shape the strategic  environment for the United States during the next two decades. The goal of this report is not to  offer a specific prediction of the world in 2040 but rather to help policymakers and citizens see  what may lie beyond the horizon and prepare for an array of possible futures. 

As the report notes in its sobering introductory passages, during the past year, the COVID-19  pandemic has reminded the world of its fragility and demonstrated the inherent risks of high  levels of interdependence. In coming years and decades, the world will face more intense and  cascading global challenges ranging from disease to climate change to disruptions from new  technologies and financial crises. These challenges will repeatedly test the resilience and  adaptability of communities, states and the international system, often exceeding the capacity  of existing systems and models. This looming disequilibrium between existing and future  challenges and the ability of institutions and systems to respond is likely to grow and produce  greater contestation at every level.  

In this more contested world, communities are increasingly fractured as people seek security  with like-minded groups based on established and newly prominent identities; states of all types  and in all regions are struggling to meet the needs and expectations of more connected, more  urban, and more empowered populations; and the international system is more competitive – shaped in part by challenges from a rising China – and at greater risk of conflict as states and  nonstate actors exploit new sources of power and erode longstanding norms and institutions that  have provided some stability in past decades. 

The NIC asserts that these dynamics are not fixed in perpetuity, however, and envisions a variety  of plausible scenarios for the world of 2040 – from a democratic renaissance to a transformation  in global cooperation spurred by shared tragedy – depending on how these dynamics interact  and human choices along the way. 

The Global Trends 2040 report, a copy of which can be accessed by clicking the link below, is a  detailed 145-page document that provides a broad range of factual and analytical material. It is  well written and thought provoking. Given its length, some DMA members may not have the time 

or the desire to plow through the entire document. For these folks, I encourage you to read the  Foreword Section (pps. v and vi), the Introduction: Key Themes (pp. 1 – 5), the Executive  Summary (pp. 6 – 13), the Scenarios for 2040 (pp. 109 – 119), and the informative charts included  at the back end under the heading Regional Forecasts (pp. 120 – 140).  

Navigating this report can be humbling. It’s also an experience that awakens many new  understandings and thoughts on possible outcomes for the long-term prospects of the world in  which we live. In advance of our Current Affairs discussion, Mike Wheeler will send to the discussion group a poll eliciting your thoughts. The results will be shared at the conclusion of our discussions. 

Given the complexity of the subject matter and the numerous areas to be covered, members may  expect the discussion to continue for up to an hour and a half from the 11 am start time. 

The following includes links to the Global Trends report and additional reading materials intended  to supplement the information included in the report:

1. National Intelligence Estimate: Climate Change and International Responses Increasing  Challenges to U.S. National Security Through 2040, dated October 2021:  https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/NIE_Climate_Change_and_N ational_Security.pdf
2. Department of Defense Climate Risk Analysis, dated October 2021:  https://media.defense.gov/2021/Oct/21/2002877353/-1/-1/0/DOD-CLIMATE-RISK-ANALYSIS-FINAL.PDF
3. Wall Street Journal Opinion Piece by Graham Allison and Eric Schmidt, dated December  8, 2021: China Will Soon Lead the U.S. in Tech: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-will-soon-lead-the-us-in-tech-global-leader-semiconductors-5g-wireless-green-energy-11638915759?st=rsg20va9jcntz7m&reflink=article_email_share
4. Wall Street Journal Opinion Piece by Henry Kissinger, Eric Schmidt and Daniel  Huttenlocher, dated November 2, 2021: The Challenge of Being Human in the Age of AI:  https://www.wsj.com/articles/being-human-artifical-intelligence-ai-chess-antibiotic-philosophy-ethics-bill-of-rights-11635795271?st=hamxya5815muur0&reflink=article_email_share
5. Wall Street Journal Book Review by Tunku Varadarajan, dated November 20, 2021: The  Principles for Dealing With the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio:  https://www.wsj.com/articles/principles-for-dealing-with-the-changing-world-order-book-review-ray-dalio-trouble-ahead-as-usual-11637335545?st=qom93w21su8v8n5&reflink=article_email_share
6. Spiked-Online Opinion Piece Why China Haunts America by Phil Mullan, dated  December 31, 2021: https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/12/31/why-china-haunts-america/
7. Foreign Affairs Article, China’s Economic Reckoning: The Price of Failed Reforms by  Daniel H. Rosen: Current Affairs China’s Economic Reckoning  
8. Wall Street Journal Review Piece, dated January 15-16, 2022, by Kathryn Stoner: The  Putin Puzzle: Why Ukraine/ Why Now?  https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-putin-puzzle-why-ukraine-why-now-11642175999?st=yaqpxmecnayrvxb&reflink=article_email_share
9. Wall Street Journal Opinion Piece, dated June 23, 2021, by Thomas Grove: Melting Arctic  Ice Pits Russia Against U.S. and China for Control of the New Shipping Route:  https://www.wsj.com/articles/melting-arctic-ice-pits-russia-against-u-s-and-china-for-control-of-new-shipping-route-11624445504?mod=Searchresults_pos2&page=1
10. Putin Has the U.S. Right Where He Wants ItVladimir Putin’s aim is bigger than closing NATO’s “open door” to Ukraine and taking more territory.https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/24/opinion/russia-ukraine-putin-biden.html?smid=em-share

Global Trends Report: GlobalTrends_2040

Given the complexity of the subject matter and the numerous areas to be covered, members may expect the discussion to continue for up to an hour and a half from the 11 am start time. 

October 28th at 11:30am (new date & time) Current Affairs: Income Inequality-Is it a problem? If so, what are the solutions? What are the Chinese doing to address their income inequality? Mike Wheeler will moderate the discussion. Gary Banks will argue for the proposal and Mark Nunan will argue the opposing side.

Study Materials

Based on Washington Post Series “Sharing the Wealth” and the IntelligenceSquared Debate 

“Economic inequality has become a linchpin of modern politics. As nations around the world face a reckoning on racial and social justice and work to combat the economic impacts of the pandemic, we ask: Is it time to redistribute the wealth? Should we address growing inequality by overhauling our tax system, expanding our social safety nets, and investing more in public initiatives like universal health care, education, and infrastructure? Or would a wealth transfer unduly punish the economic elite, destroy the promise of a meritocracy, and inevitably lead to excessive government intervention in our social and economic lives?” 

Washington Post Series on “Sharing the Wealth”

Backgrounder from the Council on Foreign Relations

Is Economic Inequality  Really a Problem? 

Intelligence Squared U.S. Debate:  It’s Time to Redistribute the Wealth

It’s Time to Redistribute the Wealth-Research Brief

Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/intelligence-squared-u-s-debates/id216713308?i=1000529064442

Warning of Income Gap, Xi Tells China’s  Tycoons to Share Wealth

A Distorted View of Wealth Inequality

6 facts about economic inequality in the U.S. 

How the Left Exaggerates Income Inequality -WSJ

How to Distort Income Inequality-WSJ

A Bipartisan consensus on Income Inequality-WSJ

6 Policies to Combat Inequality-Center for American Progress

Income Inequality Isn’t the Problem-Hoover Institution 

Fixing Income Inequality-Hoover Institution 

Middle-Class Pay Lost Pace-Is Washington the Blame-New York Times 

This Viral Video is Right: We Need to Worry About Income Inequality

Corporate Revenue Keeps Shrinking-Scott Galloway

Americans know Wealth inequity is a problem, but what does it look like? 

The Problem with the Peloton Economy

Why Do People Tolerate Wealth Inequality? 

February 17th  at 11am: Reimagining immigration policies. Ric Grefé will lead an interactive workshop using design thinking techniques to capture observations and ideas from all those attending. Participants will need to see the problem from many perspectives. According to the Interactive Design Foundation, design thinking is a non-linear, iterative process that teams use to understand situations,  challenge assumptions, redefine problems and create innovative solutions to prototype and test. The session will last 1.5 hours.

Real Life as a Palestinian-Has America gotten this one right or wrong?  David Maloof will moderate the discussion.

1. Background

I am pleased to lead an in-house conversation on “Real Life as a Palestinian: Has America Gotten This Right or Wrong?” on September 16th  from 11am-12 noon.

To save on time, let me start by providing my personal vantage point.

As a successful international lawyer, some two decades ago I asked: how could I make the biggest difference in this life?  I decided that the biggest challenge I could undertake was to try to solve Israeli-Palestinian Conflict.

I then undertook the following tasks, among others:

1.  Visiting Palestinian refugee camps in the West Bank and Lebanon to participate in real life; funding recreational facilities and a basketball court at a Palestinian refugee camp; serving on the national board of a Christian organization (“Churches for Middle East Peace”) dedicated to this cause, still a member; taking out a ½ page ad in the New York Times; paying for highway billboards; attending international Jewish organization’s peace conferences and lecturing on college campuses about my experiences; reviewing legal brief for US peace activist NGO.

2. Meeting with Middle East Christian Leaders; Palestinian leaders in Ramallah; Chief Palestinian negotiator (Saeb           Erekat) and Palestinian and Arab leaders and ambassadors in Washington and London; Israeli Foreign Ministry in Tel Aviv; members of Knesset in Tel Aviv; Israeli Settlement leaders; and Israeli media elite.

3. Meetings with US Senators, their staffs, and officials in the State Department; meeting with National Security Council Staff in the Obama White House; meeting with US Consul General in Jerusalem; providing informational documentaries to the same National Security Staff; meeting with George Mitchell, U.S. peace envoy.

4. Interacting with US media to place Palestinian peacemakers on US television and radio programs, such as CNN International and The Daily Show with Jon Stewart (2009).

5. Arranged for the President of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, to directly address the American people in English on a college campus (The Cooper Union) and call for peace (September 22, 2014).

Notes on the parameters of the September 16, 2021 discussion given the potential breadth of the topic and the limited time:

1. I would like to hew closely to the subject of: “Real Life for a Palestinian.”

2. I suggest that given time restraints we avoid discussion of historical events and try to stick to the current situation in 2020-2021.

3. I suggest that it would also probably be useful to focus on current living conditions in 2020 and 2021 in Palestine and in Israel.

4. suggest that we should focus more on current and possible future US policies than past ones.

Media

 I suggest that you might go online and watch some of the two following media:

1. “John Oliver – Last Week Tonight” Israel v. Palestine (5/17/21)

https://www.dropbox.com/s/jgbw2g1hobvpevv/John%20Oliver%20-%20Israel%20v.%20Palestine%20Conflict.mp4?dl=0

2. “Budrus” (2009) (1 hour, 22 minutes)

https://www.amazon.com/Budrus-Ayed-Morrar/dp/B00B1Z20UQ

3. “Five Broken Cameras” (2011). (Nominated for an Academy Award in 2013 for “Best Documentary.”) (1 hour, 34 minutes)

https://www.amazon.com/5-Broken-Cameras-English-Subtitled/dp/B00B03Z858

4. “The Daily Show” (guest Mustafa Barghouti) (2009)

https://www.cc.com/video/l00143/the-daily-show-with-jon-stewart-exclusive-anna-baltzer-mustafa-barghouti-extended-interview-pt-1

5. Anna Balzer, “Life in Occupied Palestine.” (2008)

https://www.amazon.com/Life-Occupied-Palestine-Eyewitness-Stories/dp/0930852478

6. Written Materials

I also suggest reading some of the following written materials:

Daily Life/Human Rights in Israel

1. B’Tselem, “A Regime of Jewish Supremacy from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea: This is Apartheid,” (2021)https://www.btselem.org/sites/default/files/publications/202101_this_is_apartheid_eng.pdf
2. B’Tselem, “This is Apartheid,” (2021) https://thisisapartheid.btselem.org/eng/#1
3. Human Rights Watch, “A Threshold Crossed: Israeli Authorities and the Crimes of Apartheid and Persecution,” (2021) https://www.hrw.org/report/2021/04/27/threshold-crossed/israeli-authorities-and-crimes-apartheid-and-persecution
4. Amnesty International, “Israel and Occupied Palestinian Territories 2020” (2020) https://www.amnesty.org/en/countries/middle-east-and-north-africa/israel-and-occupied-palestinian-territories/

Treatment of Children in Palestine

1. UNICEF, “The Situation of Palestinian Children in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon,” (2010)https://www.unicef.org/oPt/PALESTINIAN_SITAN-final.pdf
2. Human Rights Watch, “Second Class: Discrimination against Palestinian Arab Children in Israel’s Schools,” (2001)https://www.hrw.org/reports/2001/israel2/ISRAEL0901.pdf

Life in Gaza in 2020-2021

 1. Ghalayini, Basama, “A Gazan’s View on Hamas: It’s Not Complicated,” (2021) https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/24/opinion/israel-hamas-gaza-ceasefire.html

2. Save the Children, “Denial of Healthcare outside Gaza Is a Death Sentence for Children,” (2020) https://reliefweb.int/report/occupied-palestinian-territory/denial-healthcare-outside-gaza-death-sentence-children-save#:~:text=oPt-,’Denial%20of%20healthcare%20outside%20Gaza%20is%20a%20death,for%20children’%3A%20Save%20the%20Children&text=Children%20in%20Gaza%20are%20dying,Save%20the%20Children%20is%20warning

3. Al Jazeera, “‘Staggering’: WHO Says 200,000 Palestinians in Need of Health Aid,” (2021) https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/2/who-says-nearly-200000-palestinians-in-need-health-of-health-aid

4. BBC, “Israel-Gaza Violence: The Conflict Explained,” (2021) https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-44124396#:~:text=A%20ceasefire’s%20been%20agreed%20between,240%20people%20have%20been%20killed.&text=Israel%20and%20Hamas%20both%20claimed%20victory%20in%20the%20latest%20conflict

5. Conley, Julia, “This Is the Price of War,” (2021) https://www.commondreams.org/news/2021/05/27/price-war-israeli-newspaper-publishes-photos-all-67-palestinian-children-killed-gaza

6. Balousha, Hazem and Berger, Miriam, “The U.N. Once Predicted Gaza Would be ‘Uninhabitable’ by 2020.  Two Million People Still Live There,” (2020)https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/01/un-predicted-gaza-would-be-uninhabitable-by-heres-what-that-actually-means/

7. Hearst, David, “Gaza 2020: How Easy It Is for the World to Delete Palestinian Pain,” (2019) https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/gaza-2020-un-report-history-forgotten-israel-blockade

8. Kuttab, Jonathan, “Israel Has Effective Control over Gaza,” (2020) http://arabcenterdc.org/viewpoint/israel-has-effective-control-over-gaza/

9.  Mahmoud, “Speech at The Cooper Union: Rethink Palestine,” (2014) https://oldwebsite.palestine-studies.org/jps/fulltext/188331

 Anthologies

a.The Electric Typewriter, “8 Great Articles about Israel/Palestine” (2019) https://tetw.org/IsraelPalestine

b. Foote, Jilliam, Jensen, Kristen, and Wintz Neighbor, Tese, “Understanding the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: A Resource Packet for Educators” (2009)https://www.elon.edu/u/academics/csrcs/wp-content/uploads/sites/478/2017/08/Israel-Palestine-Resource-Packet.pdf

Link to Famie’s presentation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7R4gvZdicQY

Host: Bob Baker

Discussion Leader: Charles Salmans

On Thursday, May 20 at 11 a.m., I will lead a Current Affairs discussion on Covid — an update. We’ll address vaccine resistance and what may be required to prevent further mutations that potentially could get around the vaccines, the challenge of vaccinating people in poor, high density populations, whether a vaccine passport should be required, and what lessons have been learned so we are better prepared should another pandemic arise.

Charles

Slides from the discussion: Covid Discussion DMA Current Affairs

Updates on the latest Covid infection rates, vaccination rates, hospitalizations, and deaths are available from several sources.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/05/11/coronavirus-covid-live-updates-us/

Breakdowns for Connecticut, the United States, and Around the World

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/connecticut-covid-cases.html

CDC data on vaccination rates

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home

Wall Street Journal — US Covid metrics take a positive turn

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-covid-19-metrics-signal-hopeful-turn-11620423357?mod=searchresults_pos3&page=1

Taking ‘Extraordinary Measures,’ Biden Backs Suspending Patents on Vaccines

The Biden administration, siding with some world leaders over the U.S. pharmaceutical industry, came out in favor of waiving intellectual property protections for coronavirus vaccines.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/05/us/politics/biden-covid-vaccine-patents.html?campaign_id=4&emc=edit_dk_20210506&instance_id=30321&nl=dealbook&regi_id=23957096&segment_id=57373&te=1&user_id=42ca5c51e1c82904455ab0db126e5d4c

Can Employers Require Vaccination

Vaccine hesitancy, misinformation is just part of the problem.

“The Magic of RNA: From CRISPR to Coronavirus Vaccines.” presented by Tom Cech

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtQkoW8yQ4A

Host: Bob Baker

Discussion Leader: Henry Cavanna

Outline For Discussion on April 15 about Federal Debt and Deficits. Do They Matter?

I. Background of the US Budget 

II. History of National Debt and Budget Deficits 

III. Modern Monetary Theory and the Impact of Debt and Deficits

Readings:

https://www.econlib.org/library/Columns/y2021/SumnermodernmonetarytheoryPartI.html

https://www.econlib.org/library/Columns/y2021/SumnermodernmonetarytheoryPartII.html

https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/how-does-federal-government-spend-its-money

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/25/opinion/biden-us-economy.html?referringSource=articleShare

Federal Spending Charts

CA Host: Bob Baker

Presenter: Jim Phillips

Biden’s American Rescue Plan-Discussion Topics

What will the likely impact be for unemployment from the passage the ARP? 

The US will see improved economic growth in 2021 over 2020.  How much of the growth will be the result of the Covid relief bill?   major or minor impact?

What has been the effect on the size of the workforce due to added amounts to unemployment payments?  Has the workforce been reduced permanently?The bill includes more generous subsidies for health care under the ACA. Childcare tax benefits are for two years. Is it expected they will be made permanent, and at what cost?  

Certain business sectors most burdened by the pandemic are restaurants, travel, entertainment. What is the outlook for the recovery in these sectors?

The ARP contains $10 billion for infrastructure, an almost insignificant amount. Can we expect infrastructure proposals this year for a major amount?

What is the outlook for more regulation? Incentives for climate change? How will it be paid for?

What are expectations for tax hikes on corporate and personal income? Who will be targeted?

Will raising the corporate taxes from 21% to a likely 28% derail the recovery?

What is the likelihood of making cannabis legal at the Federal level under Biden?

2021 Economic Outlook under Biden Administration

2021 Global Economic Outlook _ Morgan Stanley 2_21

2021 stock outlook _ Fidelity

Economic outlook for 2021 _ Fidelity

Blackstone

Biden’s China Policy

Unemployment

Stimulus

First 100 days

Tax Hikes

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/01/business/infrastructure-biden-stimulus.html?searchResultPosition=1

https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/politics/senate-stimulus-package-what-to-expect-guide/index.html