Discussion leader:Jack Neafsey
Discussion outline:
1-CYCLICAL TEMP/CO2 FLUCTUATIONS OVER THE PAST
MINI ICE AGE FROM 1850 TO 1925
2-SCIENCE- NO HARD SCIENCE-ALL BASED ON MODELS DEVELOPED IN LATE 1980’S–MODELS HAVE BEEN PROVEN TO BE WRONG
3-IMPACT- CO2 IS A FERTILIZER-15% OF CURRENT OUTPUT DUE TO CO2
IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY–COST OF ALT FUELS W/O SUBSIDIES
4- PARIS ACCORD/ KTOTO PROTOCOL- US IS VIRTUALLY ALONE
WORLDWIDE COAL USE IS INCREASING
Global Warming
What we probably agree on by Bob Baker:
Atmospheric CO2 levels are now at the highest of the past million years. This has occurred while CO2 emissions have risen since the start of the industrial revolution.
Current atmospheric level of 410 ppm compares to 280 ppm at start of industrial revolution
For the past 4-5 years CO2 emissions have leveled off at about 100 million tons per day.
This compares with about 60 million tons per day in 1990, when temperatures were rising.
Global temperatures have an erratic yr. to yr. change but have risen since 1950 by about .7 degree C at sea level and about 1 degree C at land surface.
In 1990, the temp. increases were at about their midpoint, such that if CO2 emissions were to drop to the 1990 level, we would not expect any decline in the rate of temperature increase.
The growth in CO2 emissions from fossil fuels has resulted from the consumer choice for consuming these fuels vs alternatives. The added cost for alternatives is not known.
What is at issue is the target in the “Paris Accords” to limit global temperature rise to 2.0 degrees C (but with a preferred target of a 1.5degree rise) in some target year. No agreed level of global emissions has been set; any reduction of atmospheric CO2 will need “CO2 capture and containment” which has not been demonstrated as feasible on a large scale. Lowering CO2 emissions does not lower atmospheric CO2 levels.
Estimated costs for meaningful reductions in fossil fuel use are huge, with the assumption that these will offset future costs of higher world temperatures.
About a billion persons do not have access to a reliable supply of electricity. What is the optimum method/cost for meeting this demand?
Several humanitarian uses for large expenditures can be identified which can yield with near-term results. (Between and one and two million persons die each year: lack of clean water, malaria, HIV and malnutrition).
What is the best use of huge mandated expenditures?
What’s with this wild weather? Blame an ‘extreme’ jet stream pattern.
The Washington Post
“Even veteran meteorologists with decades of experience are astounded,” said Capital Weather Gang’s severe weather expert.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/07/25/extreme-jet-stream-pattern-has-spurred-a-week-of-wild-weather-in-u-s/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.36353023b7f0
More from the Washington Post
WSJ – Economics of Climate Change
Major Trump administration climate report says damages are ‘intensifying across the country’ – The Washington Post
Download this PowerPoint
California’s Death Valley Will Have the Hottest Month Ever Recorded on Earth
Gizmodo
July has been one for extreme heat around the world, but every locale pales in comparison to what’s going on at Death Valley in California. Already one of the hottest places on the Earth, the heat has gone into overdrive this July. Death Valley is in line to set a record for the hottest month ever recorded on Earth.
https://earther.gizmodo.com/californias-death-valley-will-have-the-hottest-month-ev-1828001766
Startling new research suggests even faster rate of global warming
The Washington Post
More than 90 percent of global warming ends up in the oceans.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/10/31/startling-new-research-finds-large-buildup-heat-oceans-suggesting-faster-rate-global-warming/?utm_term=.28e9db8bea88
The Climate Won’t Crash the Economy
A worst-case scenario projects annual GDP growth will be slower by 0.05 percentage point. WSJ 11/27/18
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-climate-wont-crash-the-economy-1543276899?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1
Climate Change Is Affordable
A new assessment allows us to think about good policy without panicking.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/climate-change-is-affordable-1543362461?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=6
A paper by Carolyn Holmes Coffey (Joe Holmes’ daughter)
Taylor Strubinger reports that on Tuesday, June 19, the Happy Wanderers will visit the area west of Lincoln Center.
Note we’ll meet on summer hours – 9:00 Mather Center.
We will be hiking Mianus River Gorge in Bedford on Tuesday. May 29, 2018 at 10.30
A compelling year-long narrative of America’s response to the fall of Chiang Kai-shek and Nationalist China in 1949, and Mao Zedong and the Communist Party’s rise to power, forever altering the world’s geopolitical map.”
