U.S. presidents typically get too much credit and blame for the state of the economy. The business cycle is alive and well, determined mostly by the behavior of hundreds of millions of households and businesses both here and abroad, as well as exogenous factors such as weather, OPEC and systemic health issues. Policy also plays a role, although monetary policy usually has a bigger influence than the Administration does. But there are exceptions, and President Trump’s tariffs clearly fit the bill: the changes have been so extreme that they are having significant impacts on financial markets and the economy. The plunge in immigration will also have notable effects. The direction is clear; these policies will raise prices and reduce output and employment. The magnitudes, however, are not: tariff changes of this size have not been experienced in our lifetimes, and where they will end up and how long they will be maintained is far from clear.
Larry Kantor draws on his many years being one of the most respected senior leaders in the financial industry and he will tackle the critical economic issues of the day. He is consistently praised for his clear, concise and comprehensive views on national issues from an economist’s perspective. Larry was formerly Managing Director and Head of Global Research for Barclay’s Capital where he built an integrated global research team that achieved # 1 status in Institutional Investor Survey. He managed 1,000+ researchers and transformed a $100+ revenue generating business that was sold to Bloomberg for more than 600 million pounds. He has made numerous media appearances on many networks to discuss economic and market developments including CNBC, Bloomberg TV and radio, Fox Business News, The Nightly Business Report and CBS Evening News. Prior to his employment at Barclay’s, he was Managing Director and Head of Global Exchange Strategy at J. P. Morgan Chase (and prior to that, he he was its Chief European Economist and Chief U.S. Economist), in addition to being Chief Economist and Strategist at Normandy Asset Management, an Economist at the Federal Reserve Board and Assistant Professor at Lehigh University.
Larry is currently an Operating Partner at Atlas Merchant Capital, a private equity firm. He was a 2016 Advanced Leadership Initiative Fellow at Harvard University following retirement at Barclay’s. He received an A.B. in Economics (with Honors) from Rutgers University and both an M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from The Ohio State University.