If you think the war in Iran is critical to America’s national interests, think also about Taiwan. The Economist has called the Taiwan Strait “the most dangerous place on earth.” Its judgement was based not only on the intense volatility in the region — a volatility underscored by China’s increasingly assertive military posture in and around the Taiwan Strait — but also on Taiwan’s immense importance to the global economy. Taiwan has the 22nd largest GDP in the world, manufactures 90% of cutting-edge semi-conductors, has 50% of the world’s container traffic passing through the Taiwan Straits and lies perilously close to the center of China’s powerful economy (the distance to the Chinese mainland is about the same as the distance between Darien and Hartford). The war in Iran might be a precursor to what could happen due to China’s intentions regarding Taiwan.

Mike Chinoy is an Emmy-winning American journalist who will be speaking to us live from Taipei, Taiwan, where he lives. He will address the prospects for China’s increasingly muscular efforts to take over Taiwan. He has reported on many of the most important geopolitical events in Asia since the mid-1970s, including the death of Mao Zedong, the rise of China, the Hong Kong handover and developments in Taiwan, Thailand, India, Pakistan, the Philippines, North Korea and elsewhere.

Mr. Chinoy is one of the most informed and sharpest thinkers in geopolitical risk between China and Taiwan. He spent 24 years serving as a foreign correspondent for CNN, including being the first bureau chief in Beijing, from where he reported live during the Tiananmen Square crisis. He also worked for CBS and NBC in Hong Kong. In addition to receiving an Emmy Award for reporting on Tiananmen Square, he received a Peabody Award, a Dupont Award, and an ACE Award, which are among the most prestigious awards in journalism. His critically acclaimed reporting during those weeks has been credited with strengthening CNN as an authoritative force in international news coverage.

He has also covered North Korea extensively, traveling there 17 times since 1989.  In 1994, he became the only journalist invited to accompany President Jimmy Carter on his historic trip to Pyongyang and was the first journalist ever to file live TV reports from North Korea.

Mr. Chinoy is a consulting editor of the Taiwan Strait Risk Report, a monthly newsletter that quantifies fast-moving geopolitical risk on the Taiwan Strait amid China’s challenge to regional stability and rapidly evolving political dynamics in the United States. He is also a nonresident scholar at the 21st Century China Center, part of UC San Diego’s School of Global Policy and Strategy. Previously, he also spent 15 years as a nonresident senior fellow at the U.S.-China Institute of the University of Southern California. From 2006-2009, he was a senior fellow at the Los Angeles-based Pacific Council on International Policy, focusing on security issues in China, North Korea and Northeast Asia.

He is the author of six books:

  • China Live: People Power and the Television Revolution;
  • Meltdown, the Inside Story of the North Korean Nuclear Crisis, which was hailed by the Washington Post as a “tour de force of reporting;”
  • The Last POW;
  • Are You With Me? Kevin Boyle and the Rise of the Human Rights Movement, described by former CBS News Anchor Dan Rather as “a terrific biography told by a world-class journalist;”
  • Assignment China: An Oral History of American Journalists in the People’s Republic, described by former PBS Anchor Judy Woodruff as “riveting reading for anyone who wants to understand China or cares about how great reporters do their work” and
  • the forthcoming Miss Kathi: Saving Lives in North Korea, co-authored with Kathi Zellweger and described by former CNN chief news executive Eason Jordan as “an unrivaled account of heartbreak and heroism in the world’s least understood nation, North Korea.”

He graduated cum laude from Yale University with a Bachelor of Arts degree in Chinese studies and has a Master of Science degree from Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism. He lives in Taipei, Taiwan.

Arranged by David Fitzpatrick

Video Presentation

Summary

Veteran journalist Mike Chinoy delivered a sobering assessment of the growing risks surrounding Taiwan and the changing balance of power between the United States and China. Drawing on decades of reporting experience across Asia — from the death of Mao to the Tiananmen Square crisis and the rise of modern China — Chinoy argued that Taiwan now sits at the center of the world’s most dangerous geopolitical fault line. He described Taiwan not only as a thriving democracy, but also as the critical hub of the global semiconductor industry, producing more than 90% of the world’s most advanced chips through companies such as TSMC. A serious disruption in Taiwan, he warned, could trigger a global economic depression far exceeding the 2008 financial crisis.

Chinoy suggested that the greatest danger may not be a dramatic military invasion, but rather a gradual political and economic strategy by China to gain effective control over Taiwan without firing a shot. He argued that China increasingly sees an opportunity created by doubts over long-term American commitment to Taiwan, especially under President Trump’s more transactional foreign policy approach. According to Chinoy, Beijing may seek to weaken Taiwan internally through political influence, economic incentives and psychological pressure while encouraging divisions within Taiwan’s own political system.

At the same time, he stressed that China faces major internal weaknesses, including financial problems, youth unemployment and turmoil within the upper ranks of the People’s Liberation Army. For that reason, he believes a full-scale invasion remains less likely in the near term than ongoing “gray zone” pressure such as military drills, maritime inspections and political coercion.

During the discussion, Chinoy also explored Japan’s increasingly assertive role in regional security, the importance of nationalism to the Chinese Communist Party and the enduring influence of Hong Kong’s experience on Taiwanese public opinion. He concluded that the future of Taiwan may depend less on dramatic battlefield conflict than on political will, economic resilience, and whether democratic nations remain committed to deterrence and alliance systems that have preserved stability in Asia for decades.