Current Affairs: Quadrennial Report of the National Intelligence Council, Friday, January 28, 2022, at 11 am
White paper summarizing the issues: DMA Current Affairs White Paper January 2022
On Friday, January 28, at 11 am, Tom Igoe will lead a Current Affairs discussion on the latest quadrennial report of The National Intelligence Council (NIC or Council) entitled Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World. The NIC supports the Director of National Intelligence in her role as head of the Intelligence Community and is the IC’s center for long-term strategic analysis. Since its establishment in 1979, the NIC has served as a bridge between the intelligence and policy communities, a source of deep substantive expertise on intelligence issues, and a facilitator of Intelligence Community collaboration and outreach.
The NIC’s report is typically released at the start of each new administration with the intent of providing guidance as to the key trends and uncertainties that will shape the strategic environment for the United States during the next two decades. The goal of this report is not to offer a specific prediction of the world in 2040 but rather to help policymakers and citizens see what may lie beyond the horizon and prepare for an array of possible futures.
As the report notes in its sobering introductory passages, during the past year, the COVID-19 pandemic has reminded the world of its fragility and demonstrated the inherent risks of high levels of interdependence. In coming years and decades, the world will face more intense and cascading global challenges ranging from disease to climate change to disruptions from new technologies and financial crises. These challenges will repeatedly test the resilience and adaptability of communities, states and the international system, often exceeding the capacity of existing systems and models. This looming disequilibrium between existing and future challenges and the ability of institutions and systems to respond is likely to grow and produce greater contestation at every level.
In this more contested world, communities are increasingly fractured as people seek security with like-minded groups based on established and newly prominent identities; states of all types and in all regions are struggling to meet the needs and expectations of more connected, more urban, and more empowered populations; and the international system is more competitive – shaped in part by challenges from a rising China – and at greater risk of conflict as states and nonstate actors exploit new sources of power and erode longstanding norms and institutions that have provided some stability in past decades.
The NIC asserts that these dynamics are not fixed in perpetuity, however, and envisions a variety of plausible scenarios for the world of 2040 – from a democratic renaissance to a transformation in global cooperation spurred by shared tragedy – depending on how these dynamics interact and human choices along the way.
The Global Trends 2040 report, a copy of which can be accessed by clicking the link below, is a detailed 145-page document that provides a broad range of factual and analytical material. It is well written and thought provoking. Given its length, some DMA members may not have the time
or the desire to plow through the entire document. For these folks, I encourage you to read the Foreword Section (pps. v and vi), the Introduction: Key Themes (pp. 1 – 5), the Executive Summary (pp. 6 – 13), the Scenarios for 2040 (pp. 109 – 119), and the informative charts included at the back end under the heading Regional Forecasts (pp. 120 – 140).
Navigating this report can be humbling. It’s also an experience that awakens many new understandings and thoughts on possible outcomes for the long-term prospects of the world in which we live. In advance of our Current Affairs discussion, Mike Wheeler will send to the discussion group a poll eliciting your thoughts. The results will be shared at the conclusion of our discussions.
Given the complexity of the subject matter and the numerous areas to be covered, members may expect the discussion to continue for up to an hour and a half from the 11 am start time.
The following includes links to the Global Trends report and additional reading materials intended to supplement the information included in the report:
- National Intelligence Estimate: Climate Change and International Responses Increasing Challenges to U.S. National Security Through 2040, dated October 2021: https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/NIE_Climate_Change_and_N ational_Security.pdf
- Department of Defense Climate Risk Analysis, dated October 2021: https://media.defense.gov/2021/Oct/21/2002877353/-1/-1/0/DOD-CLIMATE-RISK-ANALYSIS-FINAL.PDF
- Wall Street Journal Opinion Piece by Graham Allison and Eric Schmidt, dated December 8, 2021: China Will Soon Lead the U.S. in Tech: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-will-soon-lead-the-us-in-tech-global-leader-semiconductors-5g-wireless-green-energy-11638915759?st=rsg20va9jcntz7m&reflink=article_email_share
- Wall Street Journal Opinion Piece by Henry Kissinger, Eric Schmidt and Daniel Huttenlocher, dated November 2, 2021: The Challenge of Being Human in the Age of AI: https://www.wsj.com/articles/being-human-artifical-intelligence-ai-chess-antibiotic-philosophy-ethics-bill-of-rights-11635795271?st=hamxya5815muur0&reflink=article_email_share
- Wall Street Journal Book Review by Tunku Varadarajan, dated November 20, 2021: The Principles for Dealing With the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio: https://www.wsj.com/articles/principles-for-dealing-with-the-changing-world-order-book-review-ray-dalio-trouble-ahead-as-usual-11637335545?st=qom93w21su8v8n5&reflink=article_email_share
- Spiked-Online Opinion Piece Why China Haunts America by Phil Mullan, dated December 31, 2021: https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/12/31/why-china-haunts-america/
- Foreign Affairs Article, China’s Economic Reckoning: The Price of Failed Reforms by Daniel H. Rosen: Current Affairs China’s Economic Reckoning
- Wall Street Journal Review Piece, dated January 15-16, 2022, by Kathryn Stoner: The Putin Puzzle: Why Ukraine/ Why Now? https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-putin-puzzle-why-ukraine-why-now-11642175999?st=yaqpxmecnayrvxb&reflink=article_email_share
- Wall Street Journal Opinion Piece, dated June 23, 2021, by Thomas Grove: Melting Arctic Ice Pits Russia Against U.S. and China for Control of the New Shipping Route: https://www.wsj.com/articles/melting-arctic-ice-pits-russia-against-u-s-and-china-for-control-of-new-shipping-route-11624445504?mod=Searchresults_pos2&page=1
- Putin Has the U.S. Right Where He Wants ItVladimir Putin’s aim is bigger than closing NATO’s “open door” to Ukraine and taking more territory.https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/24/opinion/russia-ukraine-putin-biden.html?smid=em-share
Global Trends Report: GlobalTrends_2040
Given the complexity of the subject matter and the numerous areas to be covered, members may expect the discussion to continue for up to an hour and a half from the 11 am start time.
