Category: Activities (Page 16 of 32)

Activities are gatherings that occur on a regular schedule, usually weekly, to enjoy a specific pastime.

Golf Sterling Farms, Aug 25, 2020

Gents,

We have some times reserved for a golf outing at Sterling Farms.  The date is  Tuesday 25 August at 11am.  Cost will be $51 with a cart (single occupant).  Before fully securing this reservation, I want to get a sense for the number of you who are likely to play.

If you are interested, please respond to me directly:  picarnes@gmail.com.   This is just an indication for planning purposes.  Once we reach a critical mass, I will contact you again with an official invitation.

Peter Carnes

Current Affairs: Income Inequality, Sept 17, 2020, 11:00

Your Host: Bob Baker

Discussion Leader: David Mace

Our current affairs group will talk about income inequality in America and what we should do about it.

 

Pew Survey – CA Sep 2020

The Black-White Wage Gap Is as Big as It Was in 1950

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/opinion/sunday/race-wage-gap.html?referringSource=articleShare

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_income_equality

Racism’s Hidden Toll

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/08/11/opinion/us-coronavirus-black-mortality.html?referringSource=articleShare

How does income inequality affect our lives

Video recording of the discussion: https://youtu.be/8x4ej7hyeA4

 

 

Book Club: THE GREAT INFLUENZA,
THE EPIC STORY OF THE DEADLIEST PLAGUE IN HISTORY
BY JOHN M. BARRY
Sept 9, 2020

Sept 9, 2020, 12:00

THE GREAT INFLUENZA
THE EPIC STORY OF THE DEADLIEST PLAGUE IN HISTORY
BY JOHN M. BARRY

A keen recounting of the 1918–20 pandemic.

This deadly global flu outbreak has gotten hazy in the public memory, and its origins and character were unclear from the beginning, writes popular historian Barry (Rising Tide, 1997, etc.). But influenza tore apart the world’s social fabric for two long years, and it would be a mistake to forget its lessons. (It also tore apart the American medical establishment—but that was for the good.) With the same terrorizing flair of Richard Preston’s Hot Zone, the author follows the disease in the way he might shadow a mugger, presenting us with the vivid aftereffects as if from Weegee’s camera: “Influenza killed more people in a year than the Black Death of the Middle Ages killed in a century; it killed more people in twenty-four weeks than AIDS has killed in twenty-four years.” But Barry is not interested simply in hugely disturbing numbers. He charts how the pandemic brought a measure of scientific maturity to the medical world and profiles such important personalities as Paul Lewis and William Henry Welch, institutions like Johns Hopkins, the Rockefeller Institute, and the Red Cross. He covers with an easy touch the evolution in our understanding of viral disease and the strides that have been made to counter its effects, such as vaccines. He watches the flu spread until there aren’t enough coffins to house the bodies, and he watches as the military fails to alert the general public because the brass feared it would hurt wartime morale. Influenza appears to have spread like a prairie fire from a military base in Kansas throughout the world, thanks to WWI troop deployment and the disease’s highly contagious nature. There was nowhere to hide, Barry chillingly explains: “It now seemed as if there had never been life before the epidemic. The disease informed every action of every person.” Emerging viruses, including new strains of flu, will likely visit us again.

Majestic, spellbinding treatment of a mass killer.

 

From Charles Salmans:
There are several recent interviews on YouTube of John Barry, author of The Great Influenza, the book we are next discussing. I have watched two of these in full.
I thought the better one was this podcast on MSNBC. It’s 46 minutes. One annoying thing: 7 ads you have to skip past.
Barry was also interviewed for 55 minutes on the Great Courses link (see below). In my opinion the interviewer is not as good, but at the 12 minute mark she asks about the similarities and differences between the 1918 flu and Covid.
In short, Barry says that the 1918 flu was a lot more lethal than what we are seeing today, but Covid 19 is a lot more contagious because you can be unaware you are a carrier. Covid 19 is stealthy.
1) In 1918 you got sick and it was obvious. In many cases people were dead within a day of showing symptoms, and sometimes in as little as 4 hours. As those of you have read the book know, it  contains horrifying descriptions of people severely ill, bleeding from the eyes and ears, turning so blue their race was indeterminate.
2) Today people who are sick carry the transmittable virus for a longer period, up to 14 days, and may be asymptomatic. It is taking a much longer time for Covid 19 to move through a community, making lockdowns longer and harder to contain. In 1918 a wave swept through a community in six to ten weeks and then was gone.
What is similar:
1) Importance of informing the public and being honest. Using the war and patriotism as an excuse, there was a lot of disinformation and denial in 1918. There continues to be denial today from the White House and some Governors. Today if we can achieve vigorous testing and contact tracing, we can control Covid 19, but we seem still to struggle with as effective a response as in some other countries.
2) In 1918 they recognized the importance of social distancing, just as we do now. In that regard, at least so far, that’s the most effective means of disease control. So nothing has changed in 100 years!
Here’s the interview in which John Barry compares the 1918 pandemic to Covid 19 (12 minutes into this 55 minute interview).
From Bert:
A Warning for the United States From the Author of ‘The Great Influenza
Video of the discussion:  https://youtu.be/KWeThH_yStQ

 

Current Affairs: “Covid-19/ Status and Decisions to be Made”, Aug 27, 2020, 11:00

Host: Bob Baker

Discussion  Leader: Charles Salmans

Main topics are:

Covid infection and death rates
Latest data and possibility of “waves” this fall and next year, as in 1918

Tradeoff between economy and quarantines
Unemployment rates and issues of income replacement
Especially hard hit — hospitality and travel, small business
K-12 Schools, colleges and universities
Only the Federal government can print money; constraints on state and local budgets
Nations (and states) that have tightened after loosening (Australia, New Zealand, California, Florida)

Challenge of testing and contract tracing

Vaccine timetable
Vaccines under development
Challenge of final approvals
Manufacturing challenge to meet worldwide demand
Vaccine roll-out and priorities?
– Health care workers
– Elderly/Nursing Homes
– Other priority job categories (Police/fire, Food industry workers, Teachers)

Articles:
Covid treatment

The COvid Storm from WSJ

Covid Discussion Links Aug 2020 copy

Wall Street Journal: Lockdowns punish the economy. Months into the Covid-19 pandemic, evidence points to ways to slow the spread of the coronavirus at much lower economic cost.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-lockdowns-economy-pandemic-recession-business-shutdown-sweden-coronavirus-11598281419?st=gq8fqbf9erwckxs&reflink=article_gmail_share

New York Times: “Why are US Cases Falling? Restrictions are Working.” Charts on nationwide cases, on four states where cases have declined from their peak (Florida, Arizona, Louisiana and South Carolina), and “Where the US falls among the 10 countries with the worst outbreaks.”
Effective reproduction rate: https://rt.live/

 

 

Current Affairs: Art Baron on Innovation, June 18, 2020, 11:00

Host: Charlie Goodyear

Discussion Leader: Art Baron

 

DISCUSSION OUTLINE ON INNOVATION 

Current Affairs, June 18, 2020 

AGENDA: 

  • The Science of Innovation 
  • The Digital Age . . . a Multi-Decade Transformation 
  • Winners and Losers . . . Lessons Learned . . . Market Considerations 
  • COVID . . . a Present Day Catalyst 
  • Potential Future Industry Disruptions 

===================================================================== 

  1. The Science of Innovation 

Innovation: The process of translating an idea or invention into a product, service, or business model that creates value for which customers will pay. 

Peter Drucker: “The Discipline of Innovation” HBR, August 2002 https://hbr.org/2002/08/the-discipline-of-innovation Areas of Opportunity: Unexpected Occurrences, Incongruities, Process Needs, Industry & Market Changes, Demographic Changes, Changes in Perception, New Knowledge 

Clayton Christensen: theory of “disruptive innovation”, first introduced in his 1997 book The Innovator’s Dilemma. Key insights: S-curve, market-creating innovations drive growth, (vs sustaining or efficiency innovations), innovations often come from outside the established incumbents. 

Henry Ford: “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” Steve Jobs: “You can’t just ask customers what they want and then try to give that to them. 

“Inspiring Innovation”, HBR August 2002 https://hbr.org/2002/08/inspiring-innovation 

Other Key Enablers: Simplicity, Focus, Diversity, Cross-discipline, Innovation Culture, Risk Acceptance . . . overcoming resistance to change 

 

  1. The Digital Age . . . a Multi-Decade Transformation 
  • Dramatic transformation fueled by, (among other things), Moore’s Law, Metcalfe’s Law 
  • “The Consumerization of IT” 

○ Increasingly, employees had more capabilities at home than at work 

○ Trickle down from consumer market to enterprise market, (much like prior generation trickle down from Military and NASA to private sector) 

  • Adoption rates of digital products accelerating virally. Many digital products have near zero marginal cost. 

○ Time to reach 50 million users 

■ Automobiles, 62 years 

■ Telephone, 50 years 

■ Credit Card, 28 years 

■ Mobile Phones, 12 years 

■ Facebook, 3 years 

■ PokemonGo, 19 days 

  • Brand new product categories, e.g. Streaming content, Smart phones, Virtual Assistants, AI, Social Media 
  • Increasingly Mobile First as the Innovation platform 
  • New Business Models are Transforming Industries 

○ SaaS, Cloud . . . new players, e.g. SalesForce.com, Workday 

○ Sharing Economy . . . Uber, Lyft, Airbnb 

  • Crisis driven change and leadership, e.g. Estonia, cyberattacks, 2007 

 

  1. Winners and Losers . . . Lessons Learned . . . Market Considerations 
  • Top valued companies as of 3/31/20: Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook. 

○ Leadership with brand new product & services categories 

  • Why did Microsoft miss the Internet in the mid-90’s, but recover and thrive, while Digital Equipment missed the microcomputer in the 80’s and didn’t 
  • Blackberry vs iPhone . . . dynamics in the marketplace 
  • Industry evolution:. Visacalc and the PC, then Lotus 123, and then Microsoft Excel 
  • Early internet successes, (AOL and Yahoo), superseded by newer ones, (Google and Facebook). 

○ As consumers became more proficient with the Internet, the access advantages of AOL and Yahoo gave way to the continuous innovation of companies like Google and Facebook. 

  • Xerox Parc, (GUI and Mouse), vs Apple 
  • A 19th Century Example: Steel industry leadership shift from U.K. to U.S. with Carnegie Steel’s adoption of Bessemer Steel Process. 
  • Fast Company: The World’s Most Innovative Companies, 2020 and 2019 

https://www.fastcompany.com/most-innovative-companies/2020 

https://www.fastcompany.com/most-innovative-companies/2019 

 

  1. COVID . . . a Present Day Catalyst 
  • Medical: Vaccines, Therapies, Ventilators, PPE,… 
  • Telehealth: technology available for years, but limited adoption due to business model, (insurance, provider fees) —> current urgency now driving coverage and deployment. Many post-COVID benefits. 
  • Online services 

○ Collaboration and Work from Home 

■ Zoom Video, simplicity vs competition, 20 million to 200m users, fierce competition: Microsoft Teams, Google Meet, Facebook, Apple,… 

■ Consumer apps, e.g. Caribu 

○ eCommerce Delivery, e.g. Amazon, Walmart 

○ Food delivery services, Restaurant services, Supermarket delivery, Instacart 

○ Location services enabling individual tracking, social distancing compliance, temperatures, etc. 

○ Behavior change, e.g. increase in digital banking across populations, Gucci, reducing runway fashion shows 

 

  1. Potential Future Industry Disruptions 
  • Healthcare 
  • Education, new cost dynamics, pathway for greater equality and opportunity 
  • CyberSecurity 
  • Food Supply, risks, (global hunger, climate change, drought, income security), reduce waste, (e.g. Apeel Sciences), new sources, (e.g. Beyond Meat, milk substitutes), new processes, (e.g. precision agriculture, restaurants delivery, kits, home cooking) 
  • Environment, Efficiency, Energy Transition, Pollution, Advanced Manufacturing, Circular Economy, Hydrogen, EVs 
  • Social/News Trust and Accountability, beginning to see some take action, (Twitter, Zoom), but others resist. Much more is needed given the harmful power of digital media. 
  • Resilience, Markets, Supply Chain, Transportation, Financial Systems, Global/Deglobalization Balance, . . . .

Book Club: The Splendid and the Vile by Eric Larsen, June 10, 2020, 12:00

The #1 New York Times bestselling author of The Devil in the White City and Dead Wake delivers a fresh and compelling portrait of Winston Churchill and London during the Blitz On Winston Churchill’s first day as prime minister, Hitler invaded Holland and Belgium. Poland and Czechoslovakia had already fallen, and the Dunkirk evacuation was just two weeks away. For the next twelve months, Hitler would wage a relentless bombing campaign, killing 45,000 Britons. It was up to Churchill to hold the country together and persuade President Franklin Roosevelt that Britain was a worthy ally-and willing to fight to the end. In The Splendid and the Vile, Erik Larson shows, in cinematic detail, how Churchill taught the British people “the art of being fearless.” It is a story of political brinkmanship, but it’s also an intimate domestic drama set against the backdrop of Churchill’s prime-ministerial country home, Chequers; his wartime retreat, Ditchley, where he and his entourage go when the moon is brightest and the bombing threat is highest; and of course 10 Downing Street in London. Drawing on diaries, original archival documents, and once-secret intelligence reports-some released only recently-Larson provides a new lens on London’s darkest year through the day-to-day experience of Churchill and his family: his wife, Clementine; their youngest daughter, Mary, who chafes against her parents’ wartime protectiveness; their son, Randolph, and his beautiful, unhappy wife, Pamela; Pamela’s illicit lover, a dashing American emissary; and the cadre of close advisers who comprised Churchill’s “Secret Circle,” including his lovestruck private secretary, John Colville; newspaper baron Lord Beaverbrook; and the Rasputin-like Frederick Lindemann. The Splendid and the Vile takes readers out of today’s political dysfunction and back to a time of true leadership, when-in the face of unrelenting horror-Churchill’s eloquence, courage, and perseverance bound a country, and a family, together.

Charles Salmans on The Splendid and the Vile

Tom Igoe on The Splendid and the Vile

Money Matters – AI, Automation and What’s coming in the next 5 years. April 28, 2020, 10:00

Hugh Seaton recently sold his VR company, and he is focused on practically apply advanced technologies for years. He has led teams that have built Artificial Intelligence products, founded the Practical AI meetups in NYC and San Francisco, and successfully launched an AI startup aimed at construction companies. Hugh will discuss AI, and automation from the front lines, including from China, where he spent over nine years of his career.
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